Bitcoin Enters New Phase of Higher Volatility After Extended Price Compression

After experiencing weeks of narrow price fluctuations, Bitcoin is poised to escape its prolonged period of low volatility. The recent expansion beyond its limited price range is driving an increase in liquidation activity, while stronger responses to macroeconomic factors and on-chain events are reigniting market momentum. This transformation indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new phase characterized by broader daily price ranges and greater participation in the market.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is breaking out of a prolonged period of low volatility, leading to broader daily price movements.
The shift in market dynamics is shown by options open interest surpassing futures.
The price is now influenced by hedging flows and structured market behaviors.
The $94,635 low is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook; falling below this could trigger a bearish shift.
A confirmation of deviation could pave the way for a significant Bitcoin rally in 2026.

Bitcoin

Implications of the Increased Volatility for Future Trends

Bitcoin has officially embarked on a new volatility phase, marked by significant changes in its market structure. Analyst AliceMia shared on X that, for the first time, open interest in options has surpassed that in futures. This shift signals that BTC price action is no longer heavily influenced by leveraged speculation and liquidation events; instead, it is now more affected by hedging activities, dealer dynamics, and volatility patterns.

As a result, BTC's price behavior is evolving. The market is moving away from predictable breakouts largely driven by forced liquidations, now exhibiting more nuanced reactions around significant strike levels and expiration dates. This transition from a speculative market to a more structured environment typically precedes larger, sustained price movements.

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within its weekend price range, a range that often serves as engineered liquidity for the subsequent week. Crypto trader Lennaert Snyder underscored that an ideal scenario for long trades would be for BTC to continue climbing through Sunday, thereby sweeping up the weekend liquidity on Monday or Tuesday.

Snyder emphasizes that all eyes are on the US market opening. He would consider extending the sweep of weekend liquidity only if BTC reclaims the $95,820 high. This structural break would validate long positions, with the monthly high being the primary target, signaling potential for higher prices.

Conversely, the $94,635 low remains a critical support level. As long as Bitcoin's price stays above this mark on higher timeframes, the bullish trend could persist. However, if BTC falls below this level and returns to the prior range, momentum may shift bearish. Should this occur, a short trading strategy could become viable. Regarding Ethereum, Trader Snyder confirmed that the strategy remains unchanged from previous analyses.

Confirmation of Deviation Could Spark a Major Rally in 2026

The Bitcoin weekly outlook is progressing as anticipated. Trader Alienopstrading has indicated that short trades are currently the focus, particularly within the $110,000 to $120,000 range. BTC's price is now in a brief consolidation which is likely to lead to a movement aligned with the forecasts made earlier.

Once the lows are cleared and BTC confirms the deviation, we could finally see the anticipated "super rally" in 2026. As Alienopstrading mentioned, "Just like I provide targets for the highs, I also aim to identify the lows."

Bitcoin BTC trading at $93,143 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com