Bitcoin Equilibrium: Active Market Participants Just Breaking Even

Recent on-chain data shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around the cost basis for active investors, indicating that this group is just breaking even on their investments.

Key Takeaways

The current Bitcoin price aligns closely with the cost basis for active investors.
The Realized Price metric indicates that overall, Bitcoin investors are in a state of net unrealized profit.
Active investors are breaking even, while short-term holders are currently experiencing losses.
Bitcoin's price, as of now, is approximately $87,700, reflecting a slight decrease over the past week.

Bitcoin

Current Status of Bitcoin Pricing

In a recent post on the social media platform X, on-chain analytics company Glassnode provided an update on the current major pricing levels in the Bitcoin market. Among the metrics discussed, the Realized Price stands out as a key indicator.

The Realized Price tracks the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin for investors within the network. If the current trading price exceeds this level, it suggests that the overall group of holders is enjoying net unrealized profits. Conversely, if the price is below this mark, it indicates a prevailing loss in the market.

The chart shared by Glassnode illustrates the trend of this metric over recent years.

Bitcoin Realized Price

As shown in the graph, the Bitcoin spot price moved above the Realized Price at the beginning of 2023 and has consistently remained above this benchmark since then. Currently, the Realized Price is at $56,200, indicating that the network as a whole is profitable at the existing market price.

Although the Realized Price offers overarching insights into the blockchain, it becomes less useful during non-bear market conditions, since the asset typically does not interact with it. This limitation arises because it includes all tokens that are in circulation, including those that are no longer accessible due to lost wallet keys.

To address this, Glassnode also tracks two additional models: the True Market Mean and the Active Realized Price. These metrics focus solely on the cost basis of active market participants—investors who have recently engaged in transactions.

Currently, the True Market Mean stands at $81,100, around the lowest point reached during the significant drop in November. The Active Realized Price is noted at $87,700, which correlates with the recent consolidation levels of Bitcoin.

As the Bitcoin price currently hovers near the Active Realized Price, it indicates that the economically active investors are just breaking even on their investments.

However, while the overall active traders maintain a neutral level of profitability, this isn't the case for a specific subgroup known as short-term holders (STHs). Defined as individuals who acquired their coins within the last 155 days, the STHs are now facing a net loss, as their Realized Price stands at $99,900.

Current Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading around $87,700, reflecting a decrease of 2.6% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The price appears to be moving sideways in recent days, indicating a period of market stabilization.