Bitcoin ETFs Close 2025 with $348M in Outflows

Bitcoin ETFs Close 2025 - Image

Bitcoin spot ETFs wrapped up the last trading day of 2025 with a significant net outflow of $348 million across all 12 funds. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's value fell to $87,496, down 6% from its year-end price of $93,381 in 2024.

Bitcoin ETFs 2025 - Bitcoin ETF SosoValue

This downward trend was not limited to Bitcoin alone; Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $72.06 million, with no new inflows among the nine available funds. However, both Solana and XRP spot ETFs managed to achieve slight gains of $2.29 million and $5.58 million, respectively.

A notable event alongside this bearish trend was a $74.6 billion liquidity boost from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility, marking the largest single-day usage since the COVID-19 pandemic. Banks utilized this opportunity to manage year-end funding pressures through borrowing against Treasuries and mortgage bonds.

Bitcoin ETFs 2025 - Fed Liquidity Injection Chart

Analysts viewed this liquidity injection as a standard seasonal balance sheet management action rather than a form of emergency quantitative easing. Nonetheless, the Fed's intervention hints at a potential flexibility in monetary policy as we move into 2026, which might lower immediate tightening risks and benefit risk assets.

Key Insights

Bitcoin ETFs encountered $348 million in net outflows on the final trading day of 2025.
Bitcoin's closing price fell to $87,496, down 6% from the previous year.
Ethereum ETFs also suffered losses with $72.06 million in outflows.
Solana and XRP ETFs experienced small gains.
A liquidity injection of $74.6 billion from the Federal Reserve marked a significant shift in funding strategies.
Analysts express caution despite institutional optimism regarding Bitcoin's future performance.

Market Trends and Institutional Views

Charles Schwab strategist Michael Townsend linked Bitcoin's earlier rise above $90,000 to increased regulatory clarity post-U.S. elections. He estimates that regulatory uncertainties previously suppressed Bitcoin's value by around 50%.

“We had basically regulatory overhang, which I think was holding Bitcoin down significantly, probably to the tune of 50%, which is why we saw a big spike,” Townsend remarked during a CNBC interview, projecting that 2026 could see gains due to quantitative easing and Fed bond purchases.

Townsend noted a drop in demand for Treasury bonds, which alongside anticipated rate cuts will act as positive catalysts for assets like Bitcoin. He stated, “I think demand for government debt is going to fall significantly next year, along with lower rates. So all of this bodes well for higher vol assets, including the likes of Bitcoin.”

However, regulatory delays concerning Schwab's crypto trading platform could push its launch into mid-2026, slightly delaying the firm’s optimistic outlook.

Despite positive sentiments from institutional investors, ETF flow data indicates ongoing weaknesses. Data from Glassnode shows that both Bitcoin and Ethereum's ETF 30-day simple moving averages remained negative as the year ended, reflecting a lack of retail demand.

Bitcoin ETFs 2025 - US Spot ETF Net Flows

The technical indicators also suggested a challenging situation, with Bitcoin falling into the “Extreme Fear” zone on the Fear and Greed Index. Analyst Quinten observed that Bitcoin is now at oversold levels historically linked to price doublings within three months.

Predictions for 2026

CryptoQuant's analysis for the upcoming year presents three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movements in 2026. The most likely scenario envisions a "twisted range" between $80,000 and $140,000, influenced by intermittent ETF flows and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties tied to the U.S. midterm elections.

Bitcoin ETFs 2025 - Exchange Netflow

A medium-probability scenario forecasts that recession-driven deleveraging could push Bitcoin's value down to $50,000, while a lower probability "risk-on" scenario could escalate prices toward $120,000-$170,000 under favorable easing conditions and stable institutional inflows.

In an interview with Cryptonews, Unchained's Timot Lamarre discussed the underperformance of 2025 in terms of shifting capital allocations. He noted that “Money seeking risk found its way into Bitcoin treasury companies or the AI industry, and money trying to avoid debasement continued piling into precious metals.”

Lamarre cautioned that the growing U.S. debt dynamics may act as a political constraint on aggressive policy changes leading up to the midterm elections. Nevertheless, he believes Bitcoin could emerge as “a leading beneficiary of cheaper and more abundant dollars” once monetary easing takes place.

Among the significant institutional adoption milestones in 2025 was Vanguard lifting its ban on crypto trading, allowing transactions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs on its platform. Additionally, the CFTC approved spot crypto ETFs on registered futures exchanges in early December.

Veteran Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin shared insights on the potential for a prolonged bear market reflecting historical trends following Bitcoin halving events from 2014, 2018, and 2022. He predicts Bitcoin might hit a low of about $60,000 in early fall before it begins to recover into 2028-2029.

“There is still a ~20 percent chance of an extended bull cycle with a new high before the final correction, but it’s less and less likely as each month passes,” Terpin mentioned, suggesting that the end of 2026 could be a prime time for accumulation before expected supply shocks trigger the next cycle.