Bitcoin Expected to Stall in Q1 2026 as Capital Inflows Decline, According to CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience sideways trading through the first quarter of 2026. This forecast comes amid a notable slowdown in capital inflows as investors shift their focus back towards traditional markets.

Key Takeaways

Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant anticipates Bitcoin will remain stable in early 2026 due to decreased capital flows.
Weak investor sentiment and a movement towards stocks and precious metals are dampening short-term price momentum.
Despite the lackluster price outlook, robust ETF inflows indicate sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin.

“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju stated on Wednesday, highlighting that funds have recently transitioned towards equities and precious metals, particularly as gold and silver prices rise.

Although Bitcoin typically demonstrates strong performance at the beginning of the year, Ju suggests that the current market dynamics indicate a phase of subdued price movements rather than a sharp increase or a drastic decline.

Bitcoin Likely to Stall in Q1 2026 as Capital Flows Dry Up, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin Declines from Weekly High as Expectations of Sideways Trading Rise

As of the report’s publication, Bitcoin traded around $90,900, reflecting a decrease of over 2% for the day and down from a weekly high of approximately $94,400, based on CoinMarketCap data.

Ju expressed confidence that a significant market downturn seems unlikely, suggesting that the market is more inclined toward a “boring sideways” trading environment in the upcoming months.

A stagnant first quarter would contradict historical trends, as January typically brings modest gains for Bitcoin, averaging a return of 3.8% since 2013. February and March have delivered even stronger results, with average gains of 13.1% and 12.2%, respectively, as noted by CoinGlass statistics.

Ju's cautious perspective follows warnings from experienced trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity's macro research director Jurrien Timmer, both of whom have hinted at possible scenarios where Bitcoin might return to the $60,000–$65,000 range within the year.

Market sentiment has also appeared weak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained between “fear” and “extreme fear” since early November, recording a score of 28 on Thursday, suggesting heightened caution among traders.

However, not all indicators indicate a downward trend. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw renewed capital inflows at the start of 2026, achieving net additions of $925.3 million during the initial three trading days of the year, as reported by Farside Investors.

These inflows suggest that institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust, despite hesitations in the short term.

Bitcoin Optimism Persists as Draper and Bitwise Aim for New Highs in 2026

Meanwhile, confidence among long-term Bitcoin advocates remains strong. Venture capitalist Tim Draper emphasized this week that he foresees 2026 as a breakout year, reaffirming his long-held price target of $250,000 for Bitcoin.

In addition, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin will disrupt its typical four-year cycle in 2026 and aim for new all-time highs.

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt also posited that Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 due to eased monetary policies that would infuse fresh liquidity into global markets, potentially rekindling risk appetite following a long period of stringent financial conditions. Barhydt noted that the US central bank is already setting the stage for a more lenient policy.