Bitcoin Experiences 32% Drop Since Eric Trump's Q4 Prediction

Bitcoin's fourth quarter has turned out to be "unbelievable"—though not in the way many investors had anticipated.

Key Takeaways

Eric Trump's prediction of an outstanding Q4 for crypto contrasts starkly with Bitcoin's 32% decline since its October peak.
Data reveals that this Q4 is shaping up to be Bitcoin’s worst since the bear market of 2018, with significant losses and a drop in market confidence.
Many industry analysts have adjusted their forecasts for Bitcoin prices, extending their timelines to 2026.
Historical trends suggest that previous poor Q4 performances can lead to strong recoveries in subsequent quarters, keeping long-term hope alive.

Eric Trump and Bitcoin BTC

Since Eric Trump publicly forecasted a remarkable fourth quarter for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has faced one of its worst performances at year-end in nearly ten years. This has caused significant backlash within the cryptocurrency community.

Shifting from Q4 Optimism to Market Decline

In September, Eric Trump confidently stated that the last quarter of the year would be exceptional for cryptocurrencies. His optimism was based on historical trends, a shift toward looser monetary policies, and increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

However, reality took a different turn. Since Bitcoin reached its peak in October, it has fallen approximately 32% from its high in Q4, plummeting to a recent low. As the quarter approaches its end, 2025 is now on track to record Bitcoin’s worst Q4 since the market downturn of 2018.

Q4 Performance: A Closer Look

Market tracker data underscores the severity of the current downturn. This stark performance stands in contrast to Bitcoin's historical Q4 averages, which have typically seen considerable gains.

Accelerating Liquidations and Eroding Confidence

The downturn intensified in October, marked by one of the largest leverage flushes yet—approximately $19 billion in liquidations. As leveraged positions were cleared, funding rates fell dramatically, and bullish sentiment quickly dissipated.

In November, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a mere 10, its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market. Since then, the market has struggled to generate any meaningful recovery. Bitcoin fell to $80,600, its lowest point this Q4, and is currently hovering around $88,000, as bulls and bears battle just below the $90,000 threshold.

Market Sentiment and Community Insights

In light of the current market conditions, many crypto commentators have pointed out an ironic twist. While Q4 was certainly “unbelievable,” they caution against treating political figures as trustworthy market predictors.

Additionally, Eric Trump was not the only notable figure predicting a robust Q4. Several commentators, including Tom Lee, Standard Chartered, and Bernstein, initially projected Bitcoin prices between $150,000 and $200,000 for Q4. These estimates have since been revised, with expectations now pushed to 2026.

Potential for Future Rebound

Despite the challenging quarter, historical patterns provide a sliver of hope. Previous weak Q4 performances—like those in 2018 and 2022—were often followed by strong recoveries in subsequent quarters. In fact, early losses sometimes set the stage for explosive rallies over several quarters.

Looking ahead to 2026, significant institutions remain optimistic. Analysts from Citibank and Bernstein continue to predict that Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $189,000 under positive market scenarios, indicating that long-term belief in Bitcoin's value persists, even after an "unbelievable" Q4 marred by setbacks.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may reflect the author's personal views and do not necessarily represent those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are urged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.