Bitcoin Faces 171 Red Days – Implications for 2026

Bitcoin's [BTC] narrative for 2025 hasn't unfolded quite as dramatically as many anticipated, but there's enough happening to maintain market interest. The year appears to be stuck in a pattern of horizontal movement with increasing volatility, while investor sentiment remains in a state of fear. However, significant institutions now possess over one million BTC, providing a solid support level for the cryptocurrency.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has experienced 171 negative days in 2025, exceeding its historical average of 170 days.
A recent surge in Bitcoin's 30-day volatility might indicate the potential for substantial price movements in 2026.
Corporate ownership of Bitcoin is at an all-time high, providing a stability layer that could prevent drastic downturns.
Despite current fearful sentiment, the market is not in a state of panic, and institutional interest remains present.

A Market Stuck in Neutral

Bitcoin has recorded 171 red days in 2025, surpassing the long-term average of 170 days. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, pointed out in a post on X that years hitting this threshold typically see sideways movement into December.

Source: X

The data supports this observation, indicating that significant volatility may emerge in 2026, which is just around the corner.

bitcoin

Source: X

Nevertheless, the market is not completely dormant at this time. Bitcoin's 30-Day Volatility has increased to 0.024, breaking above the upper boundary of its one-year range for the first time since early 2024. Analysts believe this could signal the beginning of a genuine volatility expansion after months of stagnation.

Protection from Potential Downturns

In addition to these observations, the drawdown scenario provides further context.

Source: X

As of now, Bitcoin's yearly drawdown stands at 25.3%, a sharp contrast to the previous cycles where declines reached 70% to 80%. This interruption in significant corrections may be attributed to the fact that public companies currently hold 1,059,453 BTC, with Strategy managing about 650,000 BTC alone.

Source: bitcointreasuries.net

This level of corporate ownership effectively creates a liquidity floor, making it harder for severe drawdowns to occur when companies possess more Bitcoin than many exchanges.

Fear Amidst a Safety Net

With structural support established, another crucial aspect emerges. The Fear and Greed Index has remained in "fear" territory at a score of 21 for five consecutive weeks. This trend mirrors an eight-week "fear" phase during Q1 2025, which preceded a price rise.

bitcoin

Source: X

Throughout this period, as prices fluctuated near the $84K-$90K range, sentiment did not spiral into panic. In fact, the market demonstrated resilience, pulling back without dipping into "extreme fear," which was evident on November 22nd.

Currently, while anxiety permeates the market, it is not without hope. As previously reported by AMBCrypto, institutional interest has not completely ebbed despite the turbulence. Bitcoin ETFs are witnessing minimal inflows, with daily net totals at merely $54.8 million – significantly lower than amounts observed during previous accumulation phases.

Moreover, companies like MicroStrategy and BlackRock are facing mounting pressure, even as major institutions such as the National Bank of Canada expand their investment by acquiring 1.47 million MSTR shares.

Conclusion

The story of Bitcoin in 2025 presents a complex mixture of fear and resilience, setting the stage for what could be significant developments in 2026 as volatility returns and the market adjusts to new conditions. Investors should stay informed and prepared for potential changes in Bitcoin's trajectory.