Bitcoin Faces Worst Quarter Since 2018: What's Next for the Leading Cryptocurrency?

Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline of 22.54% this quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2018. With less than ten days remaining in the year, it seems increasingly unlikely that Bitcoin will meet the optimistic price predictions that experts once forecasted.

As the market approaches year-end, analysts are reassessing expectations for Bitcoin's performance and what the asset might encounter in 2026.

Key Levels to Watch as Year-End Approaches

Since reaching its peak in October, Bitcoin has faced headwinds in the market. According to data from Coinglass, the cryptocurrency closed the last two months with losses. October saw a 3.69% decline, followed by a sharper 17.67% drop in November. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen another 2.31% this month.

The cryptocurrency is struggling to maintain consistent prices above the $90,000 mark and is trading lower than its values at the beginning of the year. Contributing factors to the downturn include weak demand growth, a slowdown in spot ETF inflows, and selling from smart-money investors, which enhance the downside risks for Bitcoin.

In recent sessions, selling pressure has continued, with Bitcoin dropping an additional 1.8% in the last 24 hours. As of now, it is trading at $87,183.

![Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets]

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, expressed to BeInCrypto that Bitcoin seems “trapped in a tight range.” The challenging macroeconomic landscape is making it hard for Bitcoin to gain upward momentum below $90,000, especially as liquidity conditions tighten and investor enthusiasm diminishes.

He noted that bulls have managed to defend the $85,000 support level, but have struggled to combat the substantial selling pressure around the year's initial high of $93,000.

The options market reflects this stalemate among traders, with put options concentrated around $85,000 and call options placed between $100,000 and $120,000. Youssef suggested that upcoming options expirations, data on potential US government shutdowns, and the Federal Reserve’s $6.8 billion liquidity infusion could lead to short-term fluctuations in the market. However, he believes the market's directional trend remains unclear.

“Unless Bitcoin breaks decisively above the overhead resistance at $93,000 or dips below the critical support at $85,000, BTC is likely to remain range-bound and volatile as we approach year's end,” he advised.

The executive explained that despite a steep decline of over 30% from October's highs, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have not diminished by more than 5%. This indicates that institutional investors are largely maintaining their positions amid the current downturn.

Youssef pointed out that most of the selling pressure is coming from retail investors, particularly those who are leveraged or looking for short-term gains. He identified $85,000 as a key level to watch as 2025 concludes. If this level is broken, it could heighten the likelihood of a deeper drop toward the $73,000 demand zone.

“A breach of this support level could force institutional investors to make decisions as prices reach their cost basis, which is approximately $80,000. For the market to regain bullish momentum and strive toward previous highs, it needs to reclaim the $94,000 level,” Youssef predicted.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin in 2026?

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, noted that the final stretch of the year has become increasingly challenging for cryptocurrencies in recent times. He attributed this to ongoing seasonal weakness, persistently overbought conditions, and a shift in investor interest towards more stable options like US government bonds.

Ehsani also highlighted that market liquidity remains tight, and institutional players are adopting a cautious stance, focusing on capital preservation.

He pointed out that the ongoing correction underscores the market's fragility and its susceptibility to panic-driven sell-offs. He proposed two possible scenarios to explain this situation:

First, significant market players such as investment funds, banks, or even government entities might be positioning themselves for a large purchase. If this is the case, the current price decline could be artificial, with a likelihood of recovery after a temporary downturn.

Alternatively, the market could be oversaturated. The weakening US dollar, exacerbated by increasing government debt, has dampened the appeal of cryptocurrencies as high-risk investments. This trend is compounded by Federal Reserve policies, suggesting that the crypto market might take over a year to rebound.

Ehsani also forecasted that Bitcoin could potentially hit a new all-time high by the first half of 2026, with prices possibly returning to the $100,000 to $120,000 range by Q2.

“A renewed historical price peak could materialize as early as the first half of 2026, with expectations of a return to the $100,000–$120,000 range in the second quarter. Typically, the early months of the year do not see much action: traders often adopt a wait-and-see approach while the markets seek new growth drivers,” he noted.

Ehsani stressed that next year's critical factors will include the level of institutional adoption, regulatory frameworks in the US and globally, and, significantly, the macroeconomic conditions affecting the largest economies worldwide.