Bitcoin Futures See a 31% Drop in Open Interest as Market Begins to Stabilize

Summary: Bitcoin's derivatives market is undergoing a significant reset following a speculative year in 2025. Open interest on Binance has decreased by over 31% since October as the selling pressure from futures cools, signaling a potential bottom in the market cycle.

Key Takeaways

Open interest for Bitcoin futures on Binance has declined by more than 31% since its peak in October 2025.
This decline may indicate a deleveraging phase, often associated with market bottoms.
Selling pressure from futures trading is also decreasing, with Net Taker Volume showing signs of a possible shift in market dynamics.
A more bullish reversal could occur if Net Taker Volume turns positive.

Bitcoin news

Market Reset in Bitcoin Derivatives

The Bitcoin derivatives market is signaling a reset after a busy and speculative year in 2025. Recent data shows that open interest on Binance has dropped by over 31% since reaching a peak in October, as selling pressure related to futures begins to calm. According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, this trend often coincides with significant lows in market cycles.

In several posts on X, Darkfost highlighted that the leverage build-up throughout 2025 was driven by exceptional activity on Binance, which saw futures trading volumes surpass a staggering $25 trillion. This surge pushed Bitcoin's open interest (OI) to an all-time high of over $15 billion on October 6.

To give context, during the previous bull cycle in November 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high, the open interest on Binance peaked at $5.7 billion. In essence, open interest nearly tripled in 2025. Since then, it has stabilized around $10 billion after the sharp 31% drop.

Bitcoin Deleveraging Signal

Understanding the Deleveraging Phase

Darkfost described this move as a necessary deleveraging phase, which has intensified amid “massive liquidations.” Notably, open interest has fallen below its 180-day moving average, a factor Darkfost emphasizes often holds more significance than just the raw levels of leverage present in the market.

“These deleveraging periods are crucial, as they help eliminate the excessive leverage that has accumulated,” Darkfost explained. Historically, these phases have marked substantial market bottoms, allowing for a reset and potentially laying a stronger foundation for future bullish momentum.

The reasoning is straightforward: when leverage is removed, the market becomes less susceptible to forced liquidations and panic selling. Consequently, a lower open interest environment can lessen the impact of futures positioning on spot prices, especially compared to the crowded trade conditions that usually precede sharp price declines.

However, Darkfost cautioned that a deleveraging signal should not be viewed as a guaranteed bottom. He noted, "This could be the case again, but it's important to approach with caution." He added if Bitcoin were to continue its decline into a bear market, open interest could contract further, signaling deeper deleveraging and potential for an extended market correction.

Declining Selling Pressure in Futures Market

In addition to the adjustments in open interest, Darkfost observed a significant reduction in selling pressure driven by futures trades. He referenced the Net Taker Volume, a metric designed to show which participants are dominating the futures order books.

“The selling pressure on BTC from the futures market is sharply decreasing,” he reported, pointing out that what peaked at a monthly average of –$489 million has now fallen to just –$51 million. Although sellers still slightly outweigh buyers, this change signifies a positive shift.

Bitcoin Net Taker Volume

While the Net Taker Volume indicator has not yet flipped to a positive reading, Darkfost noted that it is moving in that direction. "We haven't reached positive territory yet, but we're getting closer," he said. He considers it encouraging that traders are beginning to adjust their strategies, especially since futures volumes carry significant weight in influencing price movement. Notably, since selling pressure has started to decline, Bitcoin's price action has also begun to stabilize.

For the "bottom thesis" to strengthen into a more definitive bullish reversal signal, Darkfost emphasized the importance of a shift in Net Taker Volume. “If it turns positive again, it would surely ignite interest for a bullish reversal.”

As of the latest update, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $95,131.

Bitcoin price chart