Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver: Will the Fed-Driven Rally Endure?

On Tuesday, Bitcoin, gold, and silver saw a notable surge in value, coinciding with expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin, gold, and silver are experiencing price fluctuations ahead of a significant Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Current market predictions suggest an 87.6% chance of a Fed rate cut, typically benefiting Bitcoin and gold, while silver often outperforms during later stages.
Bitcoin shows a bullish pattern but faces resistance at key Fibonacci levels, with potential further upside if breakout occurs.
Gold remains supported by the 50- and 100-day EMAs, with critical support established within specific price ranges.
Silver has demonstrated remarkable gains, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's growth, with ongoing bullish momentum looking for continuation despite potential near-term corrections.

The leading cryptocurrency, along with the secure commodities gold and silver, may encounter significant price volatility surrounding the Fed's interest rate decision. Notably, silver recently surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time in history, reflecting an impressive 108% increase in 2025.

Upcoming Price Targets for Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver

All attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and the following press conference by Jerome Powell. This event is crucial for Bitcoin and safe-haven commodities this week.

According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants estimate an 87.6% likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed.

Interest Rate Cut Predictions

Typically, a Fed rate cut provides a boost for Bitcoin by adding liquidity to financial markets. Gold usually benefits the most rapidly from rate cuts, while silver tends to lag initially but can outperform gold during strong reflation periods. This is why silver often makes substantial upside moves after rate cuts as momentum builds.

Currently, the markets seem to have already factored in this potential event, with traders anticipating a rate cut given the high probabilities involved.

Bitcoin’s price is exhibiting a bullish trend, remaining within an ascending parallel channel since finding a low at $80,600 on November 21. As long as the price continues within this technical formation, there is potential for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating increasing momentum, which may push Bitcoin's price upward. With its position above the 50 threshold, there is notable buying momentum; however, this level is also vulnerable to a bearish shift.

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97,015, which acts as an obstacle in its pursuit of the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.

This level could serve as a key entry point for latecomers looking to buy. If Bitcoin breaks through this resistance with substantial volume, it would signal a strengthening trend, potentially driving the price up to $103,399, noted as the 50% midrange level.

In an extremely bullish scenario, Bitcoin could target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a strong positive trend.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Should the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level remain as resistance, it could lead to a trend reversal. If sellers take action at current prices, the 78.6% Fibonacci level could serve as support, potentially allowing Bitcoin to drop out of the ascending channel.

Such a downward movement could push the price down to the support level of $80,600, marking a decline of nearly 15% from current levels.

Gold could also face a decline towards the lows of $4,199, risking a breach of the rising support trendline before rebounding. According to the RSI, momentum is waning, putting the gold price at risk for a correction.

Nevertheless, the RSI is still above the 50 mark, supported strongly by the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $4,202 and $4,203, respectively. These supports could promote a higher price trajectory.

Critical support levels are between $4,178 and $4,192. If this range holds, the bullish structure would stay intact.

Conversely, key resistance is located at $4,241. A clear break above this level might initiate further upward movement, targeting $4,260 or, in a highly optimistic scenario, $4,300 ahead of a potential recovery to the all-time high of $4,381.

Gold Price Chart

Consequently, current price levels could represent a classic buying opportunity, where any dips present a favorable point for late investors.

Silver's Remarkable Performance

The silver price is experiencing one of the strongest bull runs in recent stock market history, outperforming the S&P 500's year-to-date gain by six times. The XAG/USD price appears set for its largest annual gain since 1979, having reached a new all-time high of $60.794.

Silver is entering new price discovery levels, opening up possibilities for further rises.

In the following 15-minute chart, the XAG/USD indicates a clear bullish continuation breakout. The silver price has decisively surpassed the previous high near $58.83, progressing towards price discovery, which confirms a transition from a consolidation phase to an expansion phase.

All critical EMAs (50/100/200) are aligned positively and trending upward, showcasing strong short-term trend alignment and momentum.

Silver Price Chart

Current momentum is evidenced by the RSI exceeding 73, denoting significant buying pressure. However, this RSI position also prompts caution for potential near-term overheating, indicating the possibility of a minor pullback or slight consolidation prior to continued upward movement.

Structurally, the previous resistance levels from $58.80 to $59.00 now serve as initial support, with the next psychological and technical target at around $61.00–$61.50.

While silver remains above the rising 50-EMA (red), the overall sentiment leans towards buying on dips, with downside risk increasing only if the price falls back below $59.00.