Bitcoin Hashrate Anticipated to Align with Moore's Law, Says Leading Industry Analyst

In the world of Bitcoin mining, industry analysts hold varying perspectives on the future of the network's hash rate.

Key Takeaways

Analysts have differing views on Bitcoin's hashrate trajectory, with some predicting exponential growth and others anticipating a more moderate increase.
Bob Burnett believes Bitcoin’s hashrate growth will mirror Moore’s Law due to energy constraints.
Dr. Jeff Ross predicts a significant rise in hashrate fueled by tax incentives allowing miners to write off costs fully in 2026.
The energy supply bottleneck is a critical factor that could hinder rapid growth in hashrate despite potential capital influx.

Bitcoin Hashrate Expected to Follow Moore's Law by Top Industry Analyst

Overview of Predictions

Bob Burnett, CEO of Barefoot Mining, views the future of Bitcoin's hashrate as unlikely to experience exponential growth. He believes it will more closely follow Moore's Law, which suggests that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, leading to increases in performance.

Conversely, Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Vailshire Capital Management, has a more optimistic outlook, predicting that Bitcoin’s hashrate could soar this year. He identifies the reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation in the updated 2026 U.S. tax code as the primary catalyst for this potential surge. This provision allows miners to fully write off the cost of new infrastructure in the year of acquisition, rather than spreading it over a decade.

Implications of Tax Code Changes

Dr. Ross elaborated on how this tax reform can influence miners’ decisions. “If you are planning to build a data center, buy a substantial amount of equipment, or if you’re a Bitcoin miner looking to invest in numerous ASICs, you’ll likely wait until January 2026 to act. This is because you can take advantage of 100% depreciation immediately,” he explained.

His assertion underscores the idea that this substantial savings will enable miners to allocate more cash toward purchasing Bitcoin as well.

However, a tweet from Simply Bitcoin highlighted Dr. Ross’s belief that these tax changes will lead to increased hardware investments by miners, who may end up paying little to no taxes for 2026 and possibly into 2027 or 2028 due to the depreciation benefits.

Counterarguments from Industry Experts

Despite Dr. Ross's optimistic projections, Burnett remains skeptical of the excessive bullishness in the industry. He emphasizes that the actual bottleneck lies in energy availability, which he argues is more critical than access to capital.

“There simply isn’t enough additional energy available to allow for a dramatic surge in hash rate,” Burnett said in a recent analysis. He pointed out that the backlog for grid interconnection in major mining areas like Texas is now projected to take years. This means even with tax savings enabling miners to purchase all the ASICs they desire, without sufficient energy supply, those machines will be rendered useless.

Consequently, Burnett believes that Bitcoin's hashrate growth will reflect Moore’s Law rather than an explosive increase.