Bitcoin Hits $96K Again: Examining the Sell Ceiling Challenges

Bitcoin's surge at the beginning of 2026 has led it to re-enter a familiar resistance zone. According to Glassnode, this area has repeatedly limited price growth since November. In their latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm explains that while Bitcoin's rise above $96,000 is a positive development, it relies more on derivatives positioning and liquidity than on sustained spot accumulation.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is back at $96K, facing historical resistance linked to long-term holder supply since November.
The short-term holder cost basis is set at $98.3K, indicating potential confidence among newer investors.
Long-term holders are still net sellers, but the pace of selling has slowed.
Off-chain indicators suggest institutional demand is stabilizing, but corporate and sovereign treasury flows remain inconsistent.
Future price stability depends on genuine demand and liquidity as Bitcoin approaches historical resistance levels.

Bitcoin news

The core message from Glassnode is that Bitcoin's recent gains have brought it back into a historically important range for long-term holders (LTH). This range was established between April and July 2025, characterized by consistent supply near previous cycle highs. The report points out that there is a “dense cluster” of prices between $93K and $110K, where price recovery has stalled multiple times since November.

“This area has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating periods of correction from strong bull markets,” stated Glassnode. “As the price pushes back into this overhead supply, the market faces a critical test of resilience. For a broader trend reversal to happen, long-term holder distribution must be absorbed.”

Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap

Scrutinizing Bitcoin’s Cost Basis

A key level mentioned in the report is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis set at $98.3K. This benchmark acts as a measure of confidence for newer investors. If Bitcoin can maintain trading above this price, it would indicate that the recent demand is strong enough for new participants to remain profitable while also absorbing overhead supply.

Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis

On the blockchain, Glassnode observes that long-term holders are still net sellers, with their total supply declining. However, the pace of this decline has significantly slowed compared to the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2025. This suggests that profit taking is ongoing but at a reduced intensity.

“What happens next hinges on the ability of demand to absorb this supply, especially from investors who accumulated in Q2 2025,” the report noted. “If we fail to stay above the True Market Mean, estimated around $81K, we risk entering a severe capitulation phase similar to what occurred from April 2022 to April 2023.” This serves as a clear warning: losing the long-term mean could lead to a significant downturn.

Another indicator mentioned is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, indicating a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Currently, long-term holders are realizing around 12.8K BTC per week in net profit, which is a significant drop from over 100K BTC at the height of the cycle. While this slowdown doesn’t eliminate capitulation risks, it suggests that the heaviest profit-taking phase may be waning.

Bitcoin Demand Still Shows Varied Patterns

Off-chain signals appear more optimistic. Glassnode suggests that institutional balance-sheet flows have undergone a significant reset after months of considerable outflows, with net flows stabilizing as sell-side pressures diminish. Spot ETFs have begun to regain positivity, re-establishing themselves as essential marginal buyers.

Conversely, treasury flows from corporations and sovereign entities are described as irregular and event-driven, lacking the consistency needed for constant growth. As a result, while balance-sheet demand may provide price stabilization, it does not yet serve as a robust growth engine, leading to short-term price movements being sensitive to derivatives positioning and liquidity.

DAT netflows

According to the report, there are signs of improved behavior in the spot market. Platforms like Binance show a return to buy-dominant trends, and Coinbase, which had been a source of selling pressure during previous consolidations, has significantly reduced its selling activity. This reflects a structural shift that, while positive, still falls short of the aggressive accumulation seen during full market expansions.

Risks Remain as Bitcoin Approaches $96K

The report also highlights that the move into the $96K range was “mechanically reinforced” by liquidations in a low liquidity environment. Futures activity remains below the heightened levels experienced throughout 2025, indicating that it took relatively little capital to trigger these price movements.

“This means that the recent breakout occurred under lighter liquidity conditions, where minor shifts in positioning resulted in significant price reactions,” Glassnode added. “Thus, for continued upward movement, we need genuine spot demand and sustained volume after the short squeeze subsides.”

Additionally, options markets present another layer of caution. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but “deferred,” with a skew that reflects downside risk. In summary, while participants seem comfortable holding positions, they remain unwilling to proceed without some form of insurance against potential losses.

Cumulative Volume Delta Bias

Positioning is crucial at a microstructure level. Dealers are noted for being short gamma within a range from $94K to $104K. This setup could amplify market movements, causing them to buy into rallies and sell into dips, thus increasing the likelihood of rapid price increases if momentum builds.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $96,334.

Bitcoin price chart