Bitcoin – Is It a Case of ‘Pain Today, Gains Tomorrow’ for BTC’s Price?

Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be facing significant challenges currently, with expectations of further declines in the near future. However, there are signs of an evolving market sentiment towards Bitcoin that may be more impactful than any short-term price fluctuations.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is projected to close Q4 down 19.15%, marking one of its poorest quarterly performances in recent years.
Short-term holders are selling at a loss, reflecting a market sentiment of "extreme fear."
Predictive analysis by Bitwise suggests that Bitcoin might break its traditional four-year cycle and aim for new highs by 2026.
The current price volatility of Bitcoin is decreasing, indicating a potential transition towards a more "mature" asset.
Bitcoin's status as a top global asset alongside major names like gold and Apple enhances its credibility among institutions.

Bitcoin - Is it a case of 'pain today, gains tomorrow' for BTC's price?

Bitcoin’s Current State: Bent, But Not Broken

Currently, Bitcoin is set to close the fourth quarter of the year down by 19.15%. This decline represents one of the weaker quarterly performances the cryptocurrency has experienced in recent years. The statistics underscore this scenario—short-term holders (STHs) are selling their assets at a loss, and the market is exhibiting "extreme fear." Additionally, ongoing ETF outflows are contributing to a depletion of liquidity.

Bitcoin Analysis

Source: Cryptoquant

Such pressure is emanating from a market that is cooling down after a phase of excessive growth. Key indicators like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) suggest that capitulation is still in progress. This may indicate another two to three months of sideways movement or a drop.

However, a detailed analysis suggests that better times could lie ahead.

Optimism for Bitcoin: Best Days Ahead!

Despite the challenging conditions, Bitwise has made an optimistic prediction that Bitcoin may transcend its traditional four-year cycle and reach new heights by 2026. Their analysis attributes this potential shift to factors such as the upcoming halving, increased institutional adoption, and rising demand for ETFs.

Bitcoin Growth Predictions

Source: Bitwise

Moreover, Bitcoin has been demonstrating reduced volatility. In 2025, it has shown to be less volatile than several established companies like Nvidia, suggesting that it is starting to behave like a “mature” asset. If this trend continues, the present weaknesses could represent a transition towards a more stable phase.

A Sense of Permanence: Bitcoin’s Positioning

In the long term, positioning is crucial, and Bitcoin has solidified its place among other major assets. It currently ranks within the top 10 global assets, standing alongside giants such as gold, Apple, and Microsoft.

Bitcoin Asset Comparison

Source: X

Looking ahead, discussions will likely focus more on Bitcoin’s ranking rather than its survival. Institutions are increasingly viewing it as a core asset, enhancing its credibility significantly. While market cycles may fluctuate, Bitcoin's position on the global financial landscape appears increasingly stable and enduring.

Final Thoughts

The journey of Bitcoin is marked by ups and downs, but current trends suggest it may be transitioning to a more mature phase—one that could lead to substantial gains in the future despite the short-term challenges it faces.