Bitcoin Likely to Drop Another 50% Against Gold, Warns Leading Bloomberg Expert

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has raised concerns about a key metric that often goes unnoticed but can reveal important market trends: the purchasing power of Bitcoin in relation to gold.

Key Takeaways

Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence warns that Bitcoin's value could decrease significantly compared to gold.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is currently at 20x, with predictions that it could drop to 10x by 2026.
A correlation between stocks, Bitcoin, and market volatility suggests an interconnected risk environment.
Speculative projections for 2026 include a potential Bitcoin price around $50,000 if market conditions change.

Bitcoin Likely to Drop Another 50% Against Gold, Warns Leading Bloomberg Expert

In his recent analysis, McGlone highlighted that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio stood at approximately 20x as of December 22. He suggests that the risk outlook is unfavorable, indicating that there’s a greater chance Bitcoin's value will fall to 10x rather than increase to 30x by 2026. If this scenario unfolds, Bitcoin's purchasing power compared to gold could be halved, even if the overall USD exchange rates appear stable.

Source: Mike McGlone

McGlone notes that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio serves as an early warning indicator: when the risk of recession escalates, this ratio often faces downward pressure. Currently, this ratio is being observed alongside key indicators like the S&P 500 and market volatility. His analysis shows a notable correlation of about 0.5376 among these elements, suggesting that stocks, market volatility, and the Bitcoin/gold ratio are more interconnected than many realize, forming a cohesive “risk-on, risk-off” environment.

Looking further ahead, McGlone offers a speculative outlook for 2026, envisioning scenarios where core Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends toward 1%, oil prices drop to about $40, gasoline hovers around $2, and Bitcoin prices stabilize near $50,000. While he isn’t predicting specific dates or exact price points, he emphasizes that if U.S. stocks experience a 10% decline and don’t recover promptly, these types of price levels are often observed during market corrections.