Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Shift from Selling to Buying for the First Time Since July: Is a Recovery Ahead?

Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop in value since its peak of $126,000 in early October, falling below $90,000. However, recent analysis indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin are beginning to accumulate again, raising hopes for a potential recovery in price after a period of decline.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin long-term holders are shifting from selling to accumulating for the first time since July.
Bitcoin's price has dropped over 30% from its October peak, currently trading at $87,932.
Recent on-chain data shows a positive change in long-term holder supply trends.
A brief price bounce occurred, attributed largely to derivatives activity.
Analysts observe a cautious market and variations in Bitcoin’s price resistance levels.

Bitcoin BTC

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Shift to Accumulation

Recent on-chain data reveals a notable shift in the behavior of Bitcoin long-term holders, who are defined as investors retaining Bitcoin for more than six months. Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant has indicated that these holders are starting to buy again, marking the first time since July that this trend has appeared.

This change is crucial for understanding Bitcoin's potential future movements. Darkfost pointed out that many previous claims about ongoing heavy selling from long-term holders don't match the adjusted data. By excluding the effect of nearly 800,000 BTC moved from Coinbase, which skewed the statistics, the new figures show a shift in supply dynamics.

Since July 16, the 30-day cumulative change in long-term holder supply had been negative, affirming a sustained distribution phase. Long-term holders seemed to have reduced their total supply share consistently, but this trend has now reversed, with approximately 10,700 BTC recently re-entering long-term holdings.

Though the rise in accumulation is modest, Darkfost emphasized its significance. Long-term holders are selling less, allowing their overall supply to start increasing again, while short-term holders maintain their positions. In prior market cycles, similar behavior often foreshadowed consolidation phases or potential recoveries, contingent upon broader market movements.

Behavioral Trends Among Bitcoin Long-Term Holders

Evidence from CryptoQuant supports this analysis. From April to July, the monthly changes in long-term holder supply showed mainly positive trends, reflecting ongoing accumulation.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Change CryptoQuant
Bitcoin LTH Supply Change | CryptoQuant

Accumulation surged to nearly 400,000 BTC by mid-April before stabilizing, yet the overall trend remained positive. After a spike in mid-May, it rose above 800,000 BTC in June. Once it peaked, the trend declined, entering negative territory in July. This negative trend continued for several months, hitting a low of over -400,000 BTC in November, which coincided with Bitcoin's weaker price performance in the last quarter of 2025. Recently, however, this measure has reverted back to a positive status.

Bitcoin's Recent Price Rebound Attempts

This recent positive development occurred alongside a brief bounce in Bitcoin's price; however, this increase was short-lived and has since corrected. Darkfost noted that Bitcoin saw a rise of about $3,000 in just a few hours, likely driven more by derivatives trading than by actual spot buying. During this period, open interest increased by roughly $2 billion. Darkfost cautioned that rallies fueled by leverage are often temporary and do not tend to lead to long-term recoveries.

Technical analyst Lennaert Snyder also remarked on the recent rebound attempts. According to Snyder, Bitcoin approached the $90,600 resistance level without testing the lower support levels he anticipated. He observed weakness in the weekly open around $87,800, indicating it might be tested soon. Snyder explained that if Bitcoin breaks above $90,600, he would wait for confirmation before considering short positions towards lower levels. Conversely, if Bitcoin reclaims $90,600 on a four-hour basis, he would look for long trades towards the resistance at $93,500. Snyder pointed out that any liquidity below $87,490 could also present long opportunities after a sweep and reversal. Additionally, he mentioned that if Bitcoin dips below $86,900 on a larger timeframe, it could invite short positions targeting the $85,000 lows. Due to low trading volume and volatile price actions during the holiday period, Snyder has opted to lower his risk exposure until conditions improve.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research prior to making any investment choices. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.