Bitcoin Market Structure Resembles Early Bear Phase of 2022, Warns Glassnode

Summary:
On-chain analytics company Glassnode has highlighted striking similarities between the current Bitcoin market dynamics and the early bearish phase of 2022. Key metrics suggest that more than 25% of Bitcoin’s supply is at a loss, indicating a potential vulnerability in the market.

Key Takeaways

The current Bitcoin market resembles the structure observed in Q1 2022.
More than 25% of Bitcoin supply is currently at a loss.
Indicators such as the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model and the Spent Output Profit Ratio suggest similarities to early 2022.
Bitcoin's recent price has fallen, currently resting at $91,800.

Bitcoin

Current Bitcoin Market Dynamics

Glassnode's recent weekly report illustrates how the Bitcoin market structure is echoing the patterns observed in the first quarter of 2022. The analytics firm has provided insights into its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which showcases price levels tied to various degrees of investor profitability.

Bitcoin Supply Quantiles
The asset's price is currently below all three supply levels.
Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 48, 2025

The chart outlines three supply quantiles: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. A price at the first level means that 75% of the supply is profitable, while the other two levels correspond to 85% and 95% profitability. As seen in the graph, Bitcoin has recently dipped below all three of these levels, suggesting that over 25% of the cryptocurrency's supply is now experiencing losses. Glassnode commented, “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of capitulation among recent buyers and the potential for long-term sellers to exhaust their positions to establish a bottom.”

BTC had a similar downturn below the 0.75 quantile at the start of 2022 when the market was stagnant. Another indicator that reflects this resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which, as its name implies, measures the proportion of Bitcoin's circulating supply held at a net unrealized loss.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss
The indicator has seen a spike in recent weeks.
Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 48, 2025

From the displayed graph, the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss reached 7.1 million BTC last week, marking the highest level since September 2023, which is over two years ago. Glassnode remarked, "The current scale of supply in loss, fluctuating between 5 million and 7 million BTC, closely mirrors the early 2022 stagnant market."

Additionally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) suggests that the current market structure is closely aligned with that of Q1 2022. This ratio indicates whether investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days are selling at a profit or a loss.

Bitcoin LTH SOPR
Trend analysis of BTC LTH SOPR over recent years.
Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 48, 2025

The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has recently seen a significant decline; however, it remains above 1, meaning long-term holders are still selling at a profit. The current value of 1.43 indicates a reduction in the profitability margin among this group.

As we continue to analyze these trends, it is uncertain whether they indicate an imminent bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a market rebound is on the horizon.

Current Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin has faced a slight pullback recently, with its price falling to $91,800.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Bitcoin's price stability over the past few days.
Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView