Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market: Insights from CryptoQuant

Bitcoin might have entered a bear market approximately two months ago, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. He highlights various technical and on-chain indicators that turned bearish in early November and have not yet shown signs of recovery.

Key Takeaways:

CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin may have slipped into a bear market starting in early November.
A drop below its one-year moving average serves as a crucial signal confirming a broader trend shift.
Moreno suggests that the potential bear market bottom could be between $56,000 and $60,000.

During an appearance on the Milk Road show on Thursday, Moreno noted that many indicators from CryptoQuant’s bull score index have been showing warning signs for several weeks. This index, which ranges from 0 to 100, assesses a combination of metrics such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and overall market liquidity.

Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market: Insights from CryptoQuant

Bitcoin's Decline Below the One-Year Moving Average Indicates a Trend Shift

Moreno emphasizes that a critical signal in understanding market trends is Bitcoin's fall below its one-year moving average. This long-term technical marker reflects the average price over the past year and is often utilized to differentiate between overall uptrends and downtrends.

“For me, the last confirmation is the price going below its one-year moving average," said Moreno, adding that this usually signals a shift into bearish market conditions.

Recent price movements appear to align with this assessment. After starting 2025 around $93,000, Bitcoin surged to approximately $126,080 in October before reversing and ending the year below its starting level. As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading close to $88,500.

If this situation indeed represents a bear market, it contradicts widespread predictions that 2026 would bring another strong growth year for Bitcoin. Instead, Moreno believes the market could still be in the process of identifying a bottom.

Using Bitcoin's realized price—which reflects the average price at which existing holders acquired their coins—Moreno estimates a potential bear market low in the range of $56,000 to $60,000 over the next year. Historically, Bitcoin prices often tend to revert toward this realized price during extended downturns after having sharply risen in bullish markets.

Potential 55% Decline Viewed as Mild Historically

Should Bitcoin’s price decline reach this range, it would signify a decrease of roughly 55% from its all-time high. While this drop may seem considerable, Moreno views it as relatively mild compared to historical data.

Previous bear markets have experienced declines of 70% to 80% from peak levels, typically accompanied by widespread failures throughout the crypto industry. However, this cycle appears to be structurally different. Moreno pointed out the absence of significant systemic failures so far, in contrast to 2022, when events like the collapses of Terra, Celsius, and FTX caused major panic and forced selling.

Moreno also noted the increasing involvement of institutional players, including ETFs and long-term investors, who generally maintain their positions and are less likely to sell during market downturns. This shift, combined with a larger group of market participants and a more established infrastructure, could mitigate the adverse effects even if bearish conditions continue.

“In previous bear markets, demand was basically contracting,” Moreno commented. “Now, we have more institutions or ETFs that tend to hold their positions and some ongoing buying in the market.”