Bitcoin May Be Poised for a Comeback Against Gold, Analyst Indicates

Bitcoin

Summary: A seasoned market analyst has identified a technical pattern that suggests Bitcoin could be at a turning point after months of lagging behind gold. This comes as traders assess whether gold's steady gains have revealed limitations in Bitcoin's role as a safe haven.

Key Takeaways:

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has significantly decreased, dropping from 32 to around 20.
Recent technical analysis indicates potential bullish divergence for Bitcoin against gold.
Selling pressure appears to be easing, as suggested by RSI readings.
Gold has surged by over 70% in 2025, while Bitcoin saw a slight decline of 4.8%.
Short-term traders are currently favoring gold, but long-term holders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential recovery.

Bitcoin Versus Gold Ratio Declines

The ratio between Bitcoin and gold has fallen sharply, declining from 32 on October 5 to approximately 20 today, a decrease exceeding 37%. This means that while one Bitcoin used to purchase around 32 ounces of gold in early October, it now only buys about 20 ounces. This drop in the ratio has become more pronounced as gold's price has increased and Bitcoin dropped below important price levels.

Recent daily metrics have indicated a possible shift in momentum. On November 21, the BTC/GOLD pair reached a low of 20 with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 21.30. A further decline occurred around December 1 with a lower low but a higher RSI of 26.83. Another dip to 19 on December 26 coincided with an RSI of 32.21.

"That’s a valid bullish divergence on the daily timeframe for BTCUSD vs. Gold. Interested to see where that leads us into 2026." - Michaël van de Poppe, Twitter (@CryptoMichNL)

Technical Indicators Suggest Declining Selling Pressure

Looking at the weekly chart adds further credence to these signals. The weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD ratio has fallen to about 31.85, a level not seen since the November 2022 sell-off related to the FTX collapse, which marked a bottom in that cycle.

Bitcoin vs Gold spot price: historical performance. Source: Curvo

Similar RSI lows have been noted at previous market bottoms in 2015 and 2018. Counting these factors together, both the daily divergence and the low weekly RSI support the idea that the downtrend may be slowing, although there are still no guarantees.

Gold has experienced a remarkable rise, reporting gains of over 70% in 2025, while Bitcoin fell by about 7% during the same time frame. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $87,750, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% year-to-date.

BTCUSD now trading at $87,734. Chart: TradingView

The decline in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and Bitcoin's ongoing struggles to hold above $100,000 have raised new questions about the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” especially as gold achieves historic highs.

In the short term, it looks like investors prefer gold as a refuge for capital protection while it climbs to new peaks. However, long-term investors maintain faith in Bitcoin's potential for substantial growth once market risk appetite returns.

Market analysts suggest that the short-term outlook will depend on whether the BTC/GOLD ratio and price movements can affirm above critical levels. Until that confirmation arrives, signals will remain tentative.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.