Bitcoin May Still Drop Below $10,000, Warns Bloomberg’s McGlone

Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, has issued a warning that bitcoin could potentially fall back to, or even below, the $10,000 mark. He attributes this prediction to broader macroeconomic trends, including deflationary pressures and the volatility seen across digital assets.

Key Takeaways

McGlone believes bitcoin may drop to or below $10,000, influenced by macroeconomic conditions.
He argues that bitcoin now behaves like a risk asset, influenced by equities and commodities.
McGlone points to a potential bear market in equities and a subsequent impact on cryptocurrencies.
Stablecoins are seen as the only clear winners in the current crypto landscape due to their tethering to tangible assets like the dollar.
A broader correction in the market is expected before any potential recovery in bitcoin.

Bitcoin May Still Drop Below $10,000, Warns Bloomberg's McGlone

Bitcoin's Future: Examining the Possibility of Falling Below $10,000

In a recent interview with EllioTrades, Mike McGlone reiterated his long-held prediction that the price of bitcoin could drop “to lop off a zero,” a call he first made when bitcoin was trading above $100,000. This time, however, he approaches the forecast with a focus on macroeconomic factors rather than solely on cryptocurrency cycles.

The Argument for a $10,000 Bitcoin

McGlone's main assertion is that bitcoin has lost its status as an independent asset. It now operates within the same risk framework as traditional assets like stocks and commodities. "Bitcoin was created in 2009, and now there are 37 million cryptocurrencies," he noted. "Bitcoin had limited supply. While it led the rise of risk assets, it is now leading the decline."

He links this perspective to what he describes as a post-inflationary deflation phase, forecasting that bond markets, rather than cryptocurrencies, will be the next winners. Currently, volatility in energy, metals, and crypto markets has yet to fully affect equities, but he anticipates that will change. McGlone believes stock market volatility will increase sharply, leading to further corrections in both equities and cryptocurrencies.

This perspective solidifies his target of $10,000 for bitcoin. He clarifies that he doesn't view this figure as an exact bottom but rather as a crucial trading range witnessed historically during 2019-2020. "The highest prices at which Bitcoin was actively traded since 2020, possibly even extending to 2019, frequently fluctuated around $10,000," he added. "I believe we will return to that level."

Challenges Ahead for the Crypto Sector

McGlone does not mince words when discussing the overall cryptocurrency market. He argues that stablecoins are the only definitive structural winners as they "track something physical," like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. According to him, the rest of the crypto market relies heavily on speculative belief. He cites the remarkable growth of Tether and the overall increase in crypto-dollar supply as a clear indication that the demand for dollars is rising, rather than a stable appreciation of volatile tokens.

Furthermore, McGlone warns that the speculative exuberance seen in 2024 and 2025, which was fueled by memecoins, ETFs, and political factors surrounding Donald Trump, may have set a lasting peak for the entire asset class. "These risk assets will have to prove me wrong," he stated. "Otherwise, I see a bear market in equities continuing alongside a bull market in volatility that is just beginning."

A Different Perspective

EllioTrades challenged McGlone’s views, arguing against the severity of his bitcoin prediction and proposing that bitcoin could still serve as a hedge against currency devaluation. The discussion mentioned that stablecoin-driven commerce, privacy applications, and a new class of resilient projects following a market correction might support a future recovery in the sector. Furthermore, while many tokens might fail, those that survive may follow a familiar pattern of purge and rebirth, as seen in previous cycles.

McGlone acknowledges that crypto could eventually find a bottom, but he emphasizes that the market has not reached that stage yet. Currently, he insists that bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape still exhibit characteristics typical of risk assets in a bear market. Until there are significant corrections in equity prices and they stay down for a while, any upward movements should be approached with caution rather than optimism about a potential cycle reversal.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $69,890.

Bitcoin price chart Bitcoin must break above $74,500, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com