Bitcoin Miner Supply Shock Still Pending, New Insights Reveal

Recent data suggests that while Bitcoin miners have a tighter supply situation compared to previous cycles, it has not reached a level that could be classified as a real supply shock. Data from Axel Adler Jr.’s Bitcoin Morning Brief highlights that miners still hold a significant amount of off-exchange inventory despite the ongoing selling pressure faced on exchanges.

Key Takeaways

The supply dynamics for Bitcoin miners are tighter than in past cycles, but not critically so.
Two key indicators reveal that miners still have a substantial over-the-counter (OTC) reserve available.
Although there has been a slight reduction in miner inflows to exchanges recently, it is not indicative of a long-term decrease in selling pressure.
Miners currently hold around 152.6K BTC in OTC balances, significantly lower than historical highs but still substantial.

Bitcoin Miners Show Mixed Signals

Axel Adler Jr. bases his analysis on two related metrics. The first tracks the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of Bitcoin (BTC) inflows from miners to exchanges, reflecting the direct selling pressure in the market. The second measures the total BTC balance held in OTC addresses associated with miners to indicate the potential inventory available for sale outside public exchanges.

These metrics combined suggest that the market is accommodating ongoing miner distributions instead of running low on undisclosed supply. Adler summarizes this well: “For the market, this presents a mixed signal: the hidden OTC overhang is limited compared to past cycles, but there hasn't been a complete removal of tactical pressure in the market channel.”

This distinction is crucial. A decreased OTC balance can be seen positively since it suggests miners have less inventory set aside for large off-exchange transactions. However, if the coins produced by miners continue to flow into exchanges at a high rate, the immediate selling pressure persists.

Exchange inflow data is vital to understanding this situation. Adler observes that miner exchange inflows noticeably increased after the fourth Halving compared to the early post-halving period, with trends strengthening from autumn 2025 onward. By 2026, the 30DMA remained in what he describes as an elevated regime, showing that “a significant portion of freshly mined supply is still being directed into the market, thus current miner pressure is ongoing.”

Bitcoin Miners All Exchange Inflow 30DMA | Source: Axel Adler

Recent weeks have exhibited some easing from previous highs, but Adler does not consider this a definitive signal. “Recent trends show a local pullback from recent peaks,” he noted. “However, in the context of strong growth over the recent months, this does not appear to signify a confirmed downward trend—rather, it looks like a pause within a still-elevated exchange inflow environment. To assert real miner pressure reduction, a more sustained decline of the 30DMA from its current elevated status is required, rather than just temporary fluctuations.”

The OTC landscape is a bit more complex. As of now, miner-associated OTC balances are roughly 152.6K BTC, significantly down from the historical peak of nearly 595K BTC in 2018 and only slightly above the series low of around 146.9K BTC recorded in July 2025. Long-term observers would classify the current OTC reserve as relatively compressed.

Bitcoin OTC address cohort balance | Source: Axel Adler

Despite this, Adler promotes a measured perspective regarding claims of an exhausted reserve. “The current figure is close to the historical lower limit, but to say that the buffer is ‘almost used up’ is an exaggeration: over 150K BTC is still a significant quantity,” he remarked. “In the recent months, the OTC balance has been fluctuating within a narrow band, and February even saw a notable spike. This indicates more of a persistent low reserve rather than impending complete depletion.”

This nuanced approach is central to Adler’s analysis. The findings do not claim that miner supply is plentiful. Instead, they indicate that the supply environment has become structurally tighter than in earlier cycles, but has not yet entered the territory of outright scarcity. Miners possess “substantially less OTC inventory compared to past cycles,” Adler emphasizes, while maintaining that the reserves “have not vanished.” Rather, they “no longer appear large enough to create the same hidden supply overhang that the market previously witnessed.”