Bitcoin Miners Brace for a Tough December: Increasing BTC Difficulty and Declining Hashprice

As Bitcoin miners enter December, they face challenges with rising mining difficulty and decreasing hashprice. According to CoinWarz, the upcoming difficulty adjustment at block 927,360 is set to increase the target from 149 trillion to nearly 150 trillion. While this change may seem small, it is significant as miners are already operating with slim profit margins, and strong hashpower is driving difficulty higher even as earnings remain near historic lows.

Key Takeaways

Increasing Difficulty: Bitcoin's mining difficulty is set to rise, affecting profitability.
Hashprice Concerns: Current hashprice sits at around $38.3 PH/s, close to the crucial break-even point of $40 PH/s.
Operational Decisions: Miners may have to decide between switching off their rigs or continuing to mine at a loss.
Market Risks: Concentration of ASIC production and political concerns may lead to higher hardware costs for miners.
China's Mining Activity: Some growth in Bitcoin mining in China raises questions about the future of mining restrictions imposed by the government.

Bitcoin

Current Hashprice Near Break-Even

Data from the Hashrate Index reveals that the hashprice is currently around $38.3 PH/s per day, which is a slight improvement from a recent low of below $35 PH/s recorded on November 21. Reports indicate that many mining operations consider $40 PH/s as the break-even threshold. When earnings drop below this level, miners must make tough decisions as they move into December—whether to turn off their mining rigs or continue incurring costs. The average block time has recently been close to the ideal 10-minute mark, with the network averaging about 9.97 minutes, which contributed to a recent difficulty adjustment that reduced the difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion.

The Bitcoin difficulty chart illustrating historical changes in mining difficulty. Source: CoinWarz

Hardware, Political, and Supply Chain Risks

There are reports of a U.S. Department of Homeland Security investigation into Bitmain, a major ASIC manufacturer based in China, due to fears that its devices could be accessed remotely. Bitmain is believed to control approximately 80% of the ASIC market, as per data from the University of Cambridge. This concentration in the market means that any U.S. restrictions, tariffs, or limitations on Bitmain could result in increased hardware prices and longer delivery times for miners. Additionally, some orders for mining equipment could face delays or changes in delivery routes, complicating expansion plans for miners.

BTCUSD Trading Chart
BTCUSD trading at $91,771 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

In an interesting turn of events, a mild increase in Bitcoin mining activity has been observed in China. Some analysts are suggesting that Beijing should relax its ban on mining so that miners can take advantage of surplus energy. However, experts believe that a formal lifting of the ban is quite unlikely. According to the Hashrate Index, China's contribution to the global hash rate climbed from 13.75% in Q1 2025 to 14% this quarter, positioning the country third behind the United States and Russia. Historical data from the Cambridge index indicates that China's hash rate dropped to zero in July 2021 but rebounded to 22.29% by September of that year after unofficial activities resumed. The Cambridge index discontinued updates to its mining map in February 2022.

In summary, the tightening regulatory environment in China continues to create challenges for miners, as authorities have reinforced rules against cryptocurrency activities, claiming it can disrupt financial stability and enable illicit activities. Given these ongoing political and policy challenges, experts are skeptical about any alterations to the mining ban in the foreseeable future.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView