Bitcoin Miners’ Shift to AI May Lead to Market Overhang, Warns Lekker Capital CIO

Summary: Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, suggests that the decline in mining profitability, combined with public miners transitioning to AI and high-performance computing (HPC), could create increased market supply from corporate Bitcoin holdings. This shift, while potentially beneficial for long-term mining economics, raises concerns about short-term price impacts as miners may need to liquidate Bitcoin to finance AI projects.

Key Takeaways

Increased focus on AI by Bitcoin miners could convert their holdings into market supply.
Declining mining economics may force miners to sell Bitcoin that was previously kept as a strategic reserve.
Companies like Core Scientific and TeraWulf are pivoting to AI, resulting in lower BTC on their balance sheets.
Although these transitions are capital-intensive, they could ultimately support healthier long-term economics for Bitcoin mining.

Bitcoin Miners’ Shift to AI May Lead to Market Overhang, Warns Lekker Capital CIO

Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI

Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, recently expressed concerns on X regarding the challenges faced by Bitcoin miners. He pointed to a significant decline in mining profitability which, alongside a shift by public miners toward AI and high-performance computing, may lead to corporate Bitcoin treasuries becoming a new source of market supply.

In his words, “A substantial yet underappreciated issue for Bitcoin is the crisis surrounding mining economics. The only way this issue can improve is through a reduction in hashrate, driven by early adopters in AI compute like CORZ, WULF, CIFR, and IREN.” Thompson shared a chart illustrating that the combined Bitcoin holdings of major public miners increase sharply through 2024 and 2025, before dropping in 2026. He emphasizes that despite the AI pivot not being structurally bearish, it does impose near-term challenges.

Lower hashrate and reduced competition may indeed bolster the mining industry's long-term health. However, the costly transition to AI and HPC may necessitate the liquidation of previously held Bitcoin as companies seek capital for their investments. Thompson stated, “While this pivot could benefit the network's sustainability, it poses a challenge for prices in the near term as Bitcoin miners maintain nearly 80,000 BTC on their balance sheets. As they shift away from Bitcoin mining, they will need funds for AI projects and have no reason to keep BTC on hand.”

Bitcoin holdings by public miners

The Shift from Mining to AI

The 2025 filings and public data provide clearer evidence of this trend. Core Scientific, for instance, reported a shift in its business model away from mining towards AI-related services. Their self-mining revenue dropped from $79.9 million to $42.2 million, while colocation revenue surged from $8.5 million to $31.3 million. Management noted that the falling hosted mining revenue was part of a “continued strategic shift” towards high-density colocation. In 2025, Core generated $402.5 million from selling digital assets and concluded the year with 2,537 BTC on its balance sheet.

Similarly, TeraWulf affirmed its commitment to high-performance computing as its main growth driver in 2025. The company secured over $12.8 billion in long-term contracts and developed a platform with 522 megawatts of IT capacity under contract. Throughout this evolution, their legacy mining operations still generated revenue; for example, digital asset revenue reached $26.1 million compared to $9.7 million from HPC leases.

Cipher and IREN exhibit two different approaches to this ongoing transition. Cipher indicated a greater emphasis on HPC in 2025, securing tenants for a total of 600 megawatts of capacity and selling around $214.7 million in Bitcoin within the year. At year-end, they reported classifying $94.9 million of mining rigs as held for sale as they shifted towards an HPC model. IREN, on the other hand, claimed a practical approach to treasury management, stating they "typically liquidate all Bitcoin mined daily," concluding the year with no Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

MARA presents a unique case, as it is still transitioning toward a full AI infrastructure like Core, TeraWulf, Cipher, or IREN. While they deployed their first ten AI racks by November 2025 and partnered with Starwood for AI and HPC initiatives, they remained a significant player in Bitcoin holdings, selling around 4,076 BTC for $413.1 million in the latter half of 2025 yet retaining approximately 53,822 BTC by year-end.

This dynamic underscores the tension in Thompson's argument. Although a miner-led transition to AI could reduce hashrate pressures and enhance Bitcoin mining's economics over time, the costly shift is already being financed through BTC sales and site conversions. Consequently, while these adjustments may prove beneficial in the long run, they may also present an overhang for current Bitcoin prices.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $72,322.

Bitcoin price chart