Bitcoin Mispricing Grows as BTC Dips Below $100K: Insights from Bitwise

Bitcoin’s recent trading dynamics reveal one of the most significant macroeconomic disconnects experienced in years. Despite a surge in global liquidity, Bitcoin's performance has lagged behind both the growth of the money supply and the record prices of gold. According to a new report from Bitwise, this gap may present a substantial asymmetric opportunity for Bitcoin as we approach 2026.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is trading significantly below the global money supply, with an implied fair market value estimated around $270,000.
Gold has largely benefited from 2025’s monetary easing, now exceeding the global M2 supply by 75%.

Bitcoin mispricing deepens as BTC trades below $100K, but not for long: Bitwise

The Current State of Global Liquidity and Bitcoin

In a recent edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report, analysts argued that the overall market environment for Bitcoin remains remarkably positive, even if its price does not reflect this. Globally, liquidity is trending towards reflation: the US government is issuing almost $1.9 trillion in Treasury bills annually, preparing for $2,000 stimulus checks, and has concluded its quantitative tightening (QT) program as of December 1.

Macro Indicator signals against Bitcoin growth. Source: Bitwise

At the same time, Japan has launched a $110 billion stimulus package, Canada is reinitiating quantitative easing (QE), and China has set forth a considerable fiscal stimulus of $1.4 trillion. Over the past two years, more than 320 rate cuts have occurred globally, leading to a historical rise in global M2 to approximately $137 trillion.

Given these conditions, Bitwise has pointed out one of the most substantial valuation gaps in Bitcoin’s history. Their cointegration model indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued by about 66% compared to the global money supply, suggesting a fair market value near $270,000. This mispricing implies that there could be an upside of about 194% if Bitcoin realigns with its long-term liquidity anchor.

Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply integration model by Bitwise. Source: Bitwise

In simple terms, Bitcoin is undervalued when compared to the scale of global monetary expansion. This distinction is essential as Bitcoin has historically been the most sensitive indicator for monetary dilution because of its inherent scarcity.

Meanwhile, gold has captured most of the liquidity influx in 2025, currently overshooting the global money supply by approximately 75%. Bitwise notes that this trend may indicate an imminent rotation back to Bitcoin, potentially resulting in significant performance changes for the asset.

Related: Bollinger Bands Suggest Bitcoin Bottom Won’t Fall Under $55K

Bitcoin Poised for Strong Returns Compared to Gold

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin's current performance metrics fall below those of gold when assessed using momentum and Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe ratio evaluates the return generated by an asset in relation to its volatility, meaning that gold is presently showing better risk-adjusted returns than Bitcoin.

While Timmer does not see a reversal happening just yet, he interprets this increasing divergence as a promising setup for mean reversion.

Bitcoin momentum and Sharpe ratio. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X

Looking at the larger picture, Timmer emphasized that Bitcoin continues to track closely with its long-term power-law adoption curve despite its recent drop below $100,000. He characterized Bitcoin as "gold’s precocious younger sibling," suggesting that, while it may be less volatile now, it still holds a strong structural foundation.

Related: Bitcoin’s Lack of Price Strength Due to Sheepish Spot Buyers: What Happens Next?