Bitcoin OGs Reduce Sell-Off by 73%: Implications for BTC’s Q1 Outlook

Bitcoin OGs' sell-off falls by 73%, but will that help BTC's Q1 outlook?

Summary:
Bitcoin OGs, long-term investors who were early supporters of BTC, have significantly decreased their selling, which may positively impact Bitcoin’s recovery. As institutional demand surges and selling pressure wanes, the outlook for Bitcoin in Q1 is optimistic, but key indicators suggest caution.

Key Takeaways:

The selling activity of Bitcoin OGs has fallen by 73% from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,000 BTC in 2026.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is now nearly five times its new supply from miners.
Analysts project that institutional flows will increase significantly in 2026, supported by emerging regulations.
The True MVRV oscillator indicates potential market shifts in BTC’s price trend.

Bitcoin OGs, investors who have long believed in the potential of BTC, including early miners and adopters, have significantly reduced their selling pressure lately. These individuals purchased Bitcoin when the price was under $100 and have held onto their assets for over five years, making substantial profits.

During the recent Bitcoin price surge, this group's profit-taking partially slowed BTC's growth throughout 2025. However, as of early 2026, the selling activity from these early adopters has dropped remarkably from an average of 3,000 BTC over three months in 2024 to just 1,000 BTC, marking a substantial 73% decrease.

Bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

Growing Institutional Demand for Bitcoin

The changes in the market during 2026 have been favorable for Bitcoin. The significant selling from long-term holders, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, and excessive leverage observed at the end of 2025 have largely been corrected, establishing a solid foundation for recovery. Remarkably, the current demand from institutions for Bitcoin is nearly five times greater than what is being produced by miners. As of mid-January 2026, institutions acquired 30,000 BTC, while only 5,700 BTC was freshly mined.

Source: Bitwise

A similar pattern was noted during 2025 and 2024 when ETFs entered the market. Analysts from JPMorgan anticipate that crypto inflows will dramatically increase in 2026, building on a record $130 billion in inflows from 2025. They stated, “The rebound in institutional flows we project for 2026 is likely to be facilitated by the passage of additional crypto regulations such as the Clarity Act in the U.S., which is likely to trigger further institutional adoption of digital assets as well as fresh institutional activity.”

What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Recovery?

It's important to highlight that the True MVRV, an indicator used to assess market cycles and shifts in investor sentiment, recently reached a low near 1.0 before recovering to 1.1. Historical trends indicate that significant shifts often occur when this indicator heads toward levels of 1.5 (mid-range) or 2.0. If the current recovery continues, it may eventually stabilize if the MVRV indicator rises to 1.5 or 2. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price stands at $95,500, an 18% increase from the Q4 2025 low of $80,600.

Bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

Conclusion

As Bitcoin OGs lessen their sell-off activity and institutional demand rises, the outlook for BTC appears more positive for Q1. However, market indicators should be closely monitored to ensure sustained growth in the coming months.