Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Are Short-Term Holders Responding Amid US-Iran Tensions?

Bitcoin prices are holding steady around $68,000 as short-term holders maintain their composure despite rising tensions between the US and Iran.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently priced around $68,308, showing a 1.3% increase in the past day.
The cryptocurrency has experienced a 45% decline from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.
Recent trading activity indicates more buying interest rather than selling, as shown by rising derivatives volume and open interest.
Short-term holders, who usually react quickly to market fear, have not engaged in significant selling despite recent market dips.
Current technical indicators suggest potential resistance levels near $70,100 and possible support between $64,000 and $65,000.

Chart showing BTC price

As Bitcoin trades at approximately $68,308—an increase of 1.3% over the last 24 hours—analysts observe that the recent geopolitical unrest has not led to panic selling among short-term holders. Instead, there is a noticeable calm, leading to speculation about market stability moving forward.

Current Market Overview

At present, Bitcoin is trading at $68,308, reflecting a slight gain of 1.3% over the past day. The asset has found a position near the upper limit of its weekly price range, which spans $62,905 to $69,340, recovering from a significant dip experienced earlier in the week. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the broader trend remains corrective, as Bitcoin has lost approximately 45% of its value since reaching a peak of $126,080 in October 2025. Year-to-date, it is down about 20%, largely influenced by the pressure stemming from last year’s market rally.

In the last 24 hours, derivative activities have seen a rise. According to CoinGlass data, the trading volume has increased by 8.7%, reaching $72.3 billion, while open interest has also gone up by 1.6% to $44.9 billion. Typically, an increase in open interest alongside price suggests that new positions are being established rather than liquidated.

Short-Term Holders’ Behavior

An analysis on March 1 from a contributor at CryptoQuant examined the Short-Term Holder Profit and Loss metric for Bitcoin. This metric measures whether recent buyers are moving their coins to exchanges at a profit or loss. Short-term holders are historically known for their quick reactions to fear-driven market events, which can drive volatility.

During a market drop on Feb. 5-6, for instance, about 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss in just one day—a signal of surrender from newer market participants. However, since that time, these loss-induced inflows have been decreasing consistently.

The rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran posed another test for the market. Although Bitcoin briefly dipped toward the $63,000-$64,000 range, short-term holder inflows did not significantly increase. This absence of panic selling from this typically reactive group is noteworthy. Generally, markets tend to stabilize after forced sellers have exited, and the current data implies that much of the recent selling pressure has subsided. The reluctance to sell amongst recent buyers suggests a decrease in activity from weaker hands.

Monitoring this calmness will be vital going forward. Low exchange inflows from short-term holders could indicate seller fatigue, while a sudden rise in realized losses could suggest renewed market stress.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

Since January, Bitcoin has continued to navigate within a downward trajectory marked by lower highs and lower lows. The recent price rebound follows a sharp decrease, and the current price is consolidating with no clear trend direction emerging.

BTC daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Bollinger Bands analysis indicates that before the recent rise, Bitcoin touched the lower band near $64,400. Currently, trading around $67,300 positions it near the middle band, while the upper band at approximately $70,100 serves as immediate resistance.

Should Bitcoin face rejection in the $70,000-$71,000 region, it may continue to experience upward pressure, whereas a strong daily close above this range could signal a shift in short-term momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) has also rebounded from oversold levels in the low 20s to about 47, indicating that momentum is improving, though it has yet to surmount the critical 50 mark that generally indicates stronger buyer control.

The market structure presently resembles a sharp decline followed by a sideways compression, a pattern that can potentially develop into a bear flag. If this pattern resolves downward, revisiting the low $60,000s becomes conceivable. Current support is identified between the $64,000 and $65,000 levels, and should this area fail, the next psychological barrier could be around $60,000.