Bitcoin Price Analysis: Peter Brandt Sees Potential Drop to $25K

Some prominent analysts, including Peter Brandt, argue that Bitcoin's price downturn may not yet be finished. Brandt suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could plummet to $25,000, pointing to a breach of the parabolic structure that historically led to an 80% price decline. He remarked, “BTC’s bull cycles have shown parabolic advances. The breach of earlier parabolas has consistently resulted in a decline of more than 80%. The current parabolic progression has been disrupted.”

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price may drop to $25,000, according to analyst Peter Brandt, due to a breach in its parabolic structure.
The MSCI index review on January 15 could significantly influence BTC's movement in the coming months.
Grayscale remains optimistic, forecasting BTC could reach over $126,000 in 2026, while Standard Chartered has cut its 2025 price prediction in half.
Long-term holders are selling at a high rate, indicating potential weakness in demand despite recent ETF inflows.

Bitcoin Source: X/Peter Brandt

As of late December 2025, one of the significant factors that could instigate a considerable sell-off is the removal of Bitcoin treasuries, such as Strategy, from the MSCI index or the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. Essentially, Bitcoin's next move could be influenced by the MSCI index review on January 15. Nevertheless, some analysts predict a bullish trend heading into the end of the year, with a potential record high in 2026.

Grayscale's Optimistic BTC Forecast

On the other hand, bullish sentiments persist among institutions like Grayscale, which anticipates that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high exceeding $126,000 in 2026. In contrast to Brandt's perspective, Grayscale noted that there was not a "parabolic" movement in the 2022-2025 cycle, attributing this to the rise in institutional adoption.

Bitcoin Source: Grayscale

Grayscale believes that Bitcoin has reached its lowest point, citing options positioning and BTC treasury companies’ market values relative to crypto holdings trading at discounts. They added, “While the outlook remains uncertain, we think the prevailing four-year cycle theory may be incorrect and that Bitcoin's price could very well set new records next year.”

Conversely, Standard Chartered reduced its year-end 2025 price target from $200,000 to $100,000, revealing a lack of consensus among analysts and accentuating the uncertain landscape in the near to mid-term, as noted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Ju stated, “Many investors are inquiring ‘what’s next,’ but during ambiguous scenarios like this, the best strategy is to stick to your convictions, maintain your holdings, and wait.”

Bitcoin Source: X

Decline in Long-Term Holder Activity

Furthermore, demand dynamics appear weak. For instance, last week, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $287 million in net inflows, a positive sign. However, long-term holders (LTHs) have ramped up their selling, averaging 279,000 BTC sold daily (valued over $25 billion).

Bitcoin Source: Glassnode

In the immediate term, the price levels around $87,000 and $95,000-$96,000 emerged as critical zones with substantial liquidity that could prompt significant price movements.

Bitcoin Source: CoinAnk