Bitcoin Price Approaches $100K, but Breakout Signs Are Lacking

Bitcoin [BTC] has successfully soared past the $90,000 mark after briefly dipping to about $90,250 late Sunday evening. According to crypto analyst Maartunn, Mondays have proven to be particularly strong trading days throughout the past month.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin recently surpassed $90,000 but faces challenges as it approaches $100,000.
Historical patterns indicate Mondays are strong trading days, but upward trends may reverse.
Analysts express concerns about a potential upcoming bear market for BTC.
Increased ownership among long-term holders shows a shift in market dynamics.
The $100K price target is significant, with potential selling pressure from long-term holders hindering a breakout.

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100K, but Breakout Signs Are Lacking

Bitcoin Monday Price Action

Source: Maartunn on X

However, the upward momentum observed on Mondays isn't guaranteed to persist. In fact, four out of the last five Mondays have seen a liquidity grab that subsequently reversed, leading to long liquidations just below the day’s opening price.

Some analysts are expressing concerns that we might currently be entering a bear market for BTC. Nevertheless, the potential establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve by 2026 could enhance bullish sentiments and push prices upwards during this year.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s $100K Challenge

Bitcoin HODL Structure

Source: Axel Adler Jr

A recent post by crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted the bearish tendency for BTC using data on ownership structure and 30-day flows. His analysis revealed that long-term holders (LTHs), those who have held their Bitcoin for six months or longer, saw their share in the realized market capitalization grow from 43.29% to 43.69% between January 5 and 11. This 0.40% increase indicates a slight stabilization in ownership trends.

At the same time, the rate of migration into the LTH segment for those holding Bitcoin for 12 months or longer decreased from 2.12% to 1.81%. This suggests that the rise in the share of long-term holders within the realized cap is due to a transition of coins held for 6-12 months rather than any significant new accumulation in the 12-month or older category.

Interestingly, the data suggests that many holders who bought Bitcoin over the past year are still reluctant to sell, as their losses are manageable at the current price levels.

Bitcoin LTH Distribution Pressure

Source: Axel Adler Jr

Over the past ten days, the distribution pressure from long-term holders has remained in a neutral zone, indicating that the favorable accumulation phase seen recently has come to an end. As Bitcoin approaches the $100K mark, the selling pressure from long-term holders could intensify.

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

Source: CoinGlass

Data from the 3-month liquidation heatmap confirms that the $100K range is critical, with the area between $96K and $100K acting as a significant liquidity zone. Since price movements typically gravitate towards liquidity, it's highly possible that BTC will continue to climb towards $100K in January. However, an increase in long-term holder distribution and new whales exiting the market around the $99K mark may impede a successful breakout past this key psychological resistance.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin's trajectory towards $100,000 appears promising, various market factors could complicate this journey. Investors should stay informed about trading patterns and market dynamics that can influence Bitcoin's price movement.