Bitcoin Price Displays Worrying Patterns Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The price of Bitcoin has entered a technical bear market, having declined approximately 30% from its all-time high of $126,250 to its current price of $89,000. Several bearish chart patterns have emerged, suggesting a potential deeper decline in the following weeks as the market anticipates details from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s price has dropped about 30% from its peak, signaling a technical bear market.
Upcoming FOMC minutes may influence further declines as the Federal Reserve has indicated potential rate cuts.
Multiple bearish chart patterns suggest significant downward movement may be on the horizon.
Predictions for Bitcoin’s future are more cautious, focusing on liquidity and regulation rather than just market hype.

Bitcoin price forms alarming patterns ahead of the FOMC minutes - 1

These minutes are scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time and will shed light on the latest meeting in which the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third consecutive time this year. Officials have adjusted rates to a range between 3.50% and 3.75% and hinted at the possibility of another reduction next year. However, many analysts predict further cuts, with a Polymarket poll indicating expectations for two additional reductions, while some foresee three.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis: Bearish Patterns Emerge

Bitcoin price

The weekly price chart indicates that Bitcoin began a bull run at $15,460 on November 22, reaching a peak of $126,200 in October. However, signs are emerging that this upward trend may be reversing as multiple bearish chart patterns have formed. One notable pattern is a rising wedge composed of two ascending, converging trendlines.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the process of forming a bearish pennant pattern characterized by a vertical line combined with a symmetrical triangle pattern. These two shapes are approaching a point of convergence, signaling a likely bearish breakout.

In addition to this analysis, oscillators have shown a bearish divergence pattern. The Percentage Price Oscillator, for instance, peaked in April of last year and has recently dipped below the zero line. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has fallen beneath the neutral 50 mark and is trending downwards.

Crucially, Bitcoin has fallen below the Supertrend indicator, which turned red in November. This market behavior is reminiscent of January 2022, when prices dropped from $52,000 to $15,460.

As a result, a strong bearish breakout appears imminent, with the key support level identified at $74,368, the lowest point from April of last year. A drop below this level could indicate further decline, potentially reaching the psychological milestone of $70,000.

Predictions for 2026

After a year filled with erroneous forecasts—including Chamath Palihapitiya’s notorious “Bitcoin by October 2025” prediction—confidence in price forecasts has diminished. By the end of 2025, the once bold "target-price narratives" shifted to more cautionary tales, with analysts switching to scenario ranges rather than definitive predictions.

As summarized by Wu Blockchain, current predictions encompass a wide spectrum, spanning from optimistic six-figure highs triggered by ETF inflows and institutional interest to severe drops should market conditions tighten or technical indicators falter.

The one consensus among analysts is that the trajectory of Bitcoin in 2026 will depend less on halving-related folklore and more on liquidity, regulatory developments, and whether institutional investors continue to buy during periods of market instability.

Bitcoin price analysis