Bitcoin Price Drop to $57,000: Will the Bull Run End in Regret?

As Bitcoin recently recovered above $94,000, traders are left wondering if this signals the start of a new bullish phase or just a final burst before a more significant downturn. According to a technical analysis by crypto analyst Xanrox shared on TradingView, the bullish movements some traders are observing might ultimately conclude lower than anticipated, despite short-term price strength.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s recovery raises uncertainty about whether it indicates a new bull phase or a temporary rally before a decline.
Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin may be preparing for a temporary rise to $100,000–$103,000 before a significant drop.
Historical data indicates potential corrections of up to 54%, with a target of $57,000 as a critical support level.
The presence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs may provide some stabilization compared to prior market cycles.

Bitcoin

Analyzing the Potential for a Final Surge

Xanrox's analysis indicates that Bitcoin has formed a five-impulse wave that began earlier in 2023, culminating in October 2025 with a peak exceeding $126,000. The cryptocurrency is now experiencing corrective waves labeled ABC.

According to Elliott Wave theory, Xanrox posits that Bitcoin has witnessed a sharp retracement from its anticipated 2025 peak close to $125,000, currently resting in the low-$80,000 range. This downward movement is categorized as corrective wave A. Presently, Bitcoin is seen to be in a bullish counter-phase, often referred to as wave (B) or (X), which typically retraces some of the previous decline before reversing direction again.

Under this outlook, Bitcoin has the potential to rise to a range between $100,000 and $103,000 over the following weeks or months, possibly triggering a brief surge in altcoin investments. However, this potential increase is viewed as corrective instead of impulsive, leading to a subsequent larger drop once the current structure concludes.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick. Source: TradingView

Long-Term Projections Suggest a Painful Correction Ahead

Xanrox’s findings place Bitcoin in a long-term framework that spans from 2017 to 2026, illustrating how past market cycles concluded with steep corrections after euphoric peaks. Notably, the significant downturns in 2018 and 2022, which wiped out over 75% of Bitcoin's value, serve as reference points for what may occur next.

Looking ahead, the next substantial corrective phase is anticipated to manifest in 2026. Bitcoin could potentially drop to below $60,000, with $57,000 identified as a critical level where the correction might pause. This correction target is calculated based on the positioning of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent 2025 high and is just above the 200-week moving average.

If this scenario materializes, it would indicate a correction of approximately 54% from the 2025 peak should that level indeed prove to be the cycle's high. Importantly, the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs may provide a stabilizing influence compared to previous cycles in 2018 and 2022, potentially resulting in a more robust support level before any drop down to $57,000.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price pushes toward $95,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com