Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Drop Below $80K Amid 'MSTR Hit Job' Concerns

Summary: Bitcoin is at risk of declining below the $80,000 mark due to ongoing pressures from institutional investors and growing concerns about Strategy, a significant corporate holder of Bitcoin. If the current bearish pattern continues, BTC could drop to $77,400. However, breaking above certain price levels could reverse this decline.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin (BTC) may drop to $77,400 if the bear flag breaks down.
Ongoing pressures from MSCI tensions add to an already delicate market situation.

Bitcoin price risks decline below $80K as fears of ‘MSTR hit job’ escalate

Bear Flag Setup Could Push BTC Price to $77,400

As of Wednesday, Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag, which is a temporary pattern usually seen after a sharp decline, often indicating that the previous trend may continue. This pattern suggests that sellers are still active in the market, as Bitcoin continues to trade below both its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A significant drop below the flag's lower trendline would confirm that the bearish outlook is continuing, potentially leading to a price decrease towards $77,400. On the other hand, if Bitcoin can rise above the 50-4H exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $88,655, or exceed the flag's upper trendline near $90,000, it could negate this negative perspective.

Source: X

Is Strategy Facing a 'Hit Job'?

Beyond technical analysis, Bitcoin's potential downturn may also be affected by growing uncertainty surrounding Strategy, which is among the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin. The company is under the microscope as MSCI is reviewing whether to exclude it from its indexes due to the significant proportion of its balance sheet tied up in digital assets. This decision, expected by January 15, 2026, could add more institutional risk just as Bitcoin's market structure is weakening.

Related: Strategy and Bitcoin advocates are urging a 'boycott' against JP Morgan.

If Strategy were to be excluded from these key indexes, it could trigger billions in automatic sales of its shares from passive investment funds, as noted by CryptoQuant author GugaOnChain.

MSTR-to-BTC reserve ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

JP Morgan has also indicated that if Strategy is removed from the MSCI indexes, passive funds adhering to those benchmarks may be compelled to sell off large amounts of equity. Analyst Adrian has characterized these warnings as a “MSTR hit job,” suggesting they may be aimed at directing investors towards JP Morgan's Bitcoin-based leveraged investment products.

In response to the growing uncertainties related to MSCI, Strategy has attempted to reassure the market about its financial stability should Bitcoin's decline worsen. In a statement released on November 26, the company claimed that even if Bitcoin were to drop to its average cost basis of around $74,000, it would still maintain a robust 5.9 times asset coverage concerning its convertible debt. This figure is referred to as its “BTC Rating” of debt.