Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Drop to $75K Ahead of BoJ Decision

Bitcoin continues to experience significant downward pressure, and analysts warn that it could drop to $75,000 as the Bank of Japan approaches its interest rate decision.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has fallen to $90,000, around 29% lower than its peak this year, indicating a persistent bear market.
There is a 98% expectation that the Bank of Japan will increase rates by 5 basis points to combat inflation on December 19.
Historically, Bitcoin's price has declined significantly during BoJ rate hikes, with notable drops occurring last year.
Technical analysis indicates further declines for Bitcoin, suggesting a possible target of $80,000, followed by a potential drop to $74,500.

Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, has been stuck at the significant psychological level of $90,000. This represents a decline of approximately 29% from its highest point earlier this year, indicating that it remains firmly in a bear market.

The upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike on December 19 may trigger a further crash in Bitcoin prices. According to data from Polymarket, there is a 98% likelihood that the BoJ will increase rates by 5 basis points, as it works to manage the persistent inflation.

This potential rate hike is significant for several reasons. Firstly, it underscores the BoJ’s independence, particularly since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi supports low interest rates. Secondly, the rate adjustment occurs just a week after the Federal Reserve lowered its rates by 25 basis points, now standing between 3.50% and 3.75%. The differences between the Fed and the BoJ can often lead to the unwinding of long-standing carry trades.

Lastly, historical data shows that Bitcoin typically suffers double-digit losses following BoJ rate increases. For instance, last year marked the most severe drop in Bitcoin's price correlated with a BoJ rate hike after decades of stability.

🚨 BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC

Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt 🇯🇵

📉 Look at the $BTC chart:

Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+👇

• March 2024 → -23%
• July 2024 → -26%
• January 2025 →… pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4 — AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, 2025

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has indicated the possibility of only one rate cut in 2026, which is significantly lower than analysts initially expected. Although there may be shifts in leadership at the Fed, the recent dissent among three Fed officials suggests that this trend of caution may continue into the following year.

Bitcoin price at risk of a crash to $75 as a major BoJ risk looms - 1

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news

Analyzing Bitcoin's technical indicators suggests that further declines are likely in the coming weeks. A death cross pattern has already appeared on the daily chart, signaling bearish momentum.

Bitcoin is currently forming a bearish flag pattern, comprising a vertical line and an ascending channel. This formation, similar to the death cross, is generally seen as a precursor to additional downside.

Bitcoin's price remains below key indicators, such as the Ichimoku cloud and the Supertrend, highlighting bearish market control. Consequently, the most probable scenario appears to be a continued decline, with the first target being the November low of $80,000. If Bitcoin drops below this threshold, it could lead to further losses, potentially reaching the support level at $74,500, which is the lowest price observed in April of this year.