Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analyst Points to $500K Average in Current Cycle

As Bitcoin trades around $67,300, which is significantly lower than its recent peak of $74,000, one prominent analyst suggests that this drop is minimal. He anticipates an average price of close to $500,000 for the current halving cycle spanning 2024 to 2028.

Key Takeaways

Analyst PlanB predicts Bitcoin's price could average $500,000 during the current halving cycle (2024-2028).
The Stock-to-Flow model suggests a supply-demand relationship, with price expectations ranging from $250,000 to $1 million.
Another analyst, Bobby A, estimates a more modest price range of $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026-2027.
Market conditions, including geopolitical events and ETF inflows, are contributing factors to Bitcoin's price volatility.
The future of Bitcoin's price trajectory, whether towards higher averages or a plateau, remains uncertain.

Bitcoin

Understanding the Valuation Model

The analyst known as PlanB, who is behind the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, believes Bitcoin’s price could average approximately $500,000 during this halving cycle, with potential fluctuations between $250,000 and $1 million.

The foundation of this model is simple: as the supply of Bitcoin increases at a slower pace due to halving events—occurring roughly every four years, which cut mining rewards in half—demand that remains stable or grows will likely push the price upward. It is important to note that PlanB emphasizes this figure as a cycle average rather than an exact peak or a guaranteed outcome.

Halving events lead to a reduction in the number of new Bitcoin entering the market. The latest halving event occurred in April 2024, and historically, significant price increases have followed each halving, supporting PlanB's argument.

Stock-to-Flow Model

Diverse Opinions in the Market

Not all analysts agree with this optimistic prediction. Another crypto analyst, Bobby A, has a projection ranging from $200,000 to $250,000 by mid-2026 to 2027. Although this represents considerable growth from current prices, it falls short of PlanB’s midpoint estimate.

Bobby A views the Stock-to-Flow model as a rough long-term indicator but asserts that it is insufficient to accurately predict specific price targets in a market as unpredictable as cryptocurrency. He points out that the model captures Bitcoin's overarching growth narrative while neglecting the various factors that can affect prices in real-time.

"My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures through 2026 and into 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028." — Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026

Bobby A's skepticism is rooted in the past performance of the Stock-to-Flow model, which faced significant criticism after Bitcoin did not maintain the price levels it was projected to reach during the 2020-2024 cycle. Some analysts dismissed the model entirely, while others believe it was never meant to serve as an exact forecasting tool—a nuance that is often overlooked in media reports.

BTC Trading Chart

Several external factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations. Geopolitical tensions and changing inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—which gained U.S. regulatory approval in early 2024—have introduced additional short-term volatility. Data indicates that ETF inflows, which previously pushed Bitcoin to record levels earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months.

Analysts generally regard the current price phase as a period of consolidation following a strong rally that saw Bitcoin surpass $72,000. Whether this consolidation will lead to further price increases or indicate a prolonged plateau remains uncertain.

For PlanB's prediction of a $500,000 cycle average to materialize, Bitcoin would need to increase more than sevenfold from its current price before this cycle concludes. While this seems formidable, history shows that rapid price movements are possible in the crypto space, leaving some investors hopeful for extraordinary outcomes.

Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView