Bitcoin Price Forecast: Could a Bear Trap Propel BTC to $100K?

The final week of November appears to offer a moment of relief for the crypto market.

Key Takeaways

The crypto market shows signs of recovery after significant losses.
Bitcoin has been a leading factor in this week's positive inflows.
Crucial resistance levels need to be overcome for a full bull run to be confirmed.
Investor sentiment is showing improvement with a rise in the Fear and Greed Index.
A significant amount of short liquidations has occurred, indicating trapped positions.
A push toward the $100k mark is becoming a plausible scenario with favorable metrics trending.

Bitcoin price prediction

Following three consecutive weeks of losses that erased $970 billion from the overall crypto market capitalization, this week has seen an increase of over 5%, with $160 billion in new capital flowing in. This might signal the first positive weekly closure of the month.

Bitcoin [BTC] has been a significant player in this recovery, representing 62% of the new inflows. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index has dropped to levels not seen since mid-July. With Bitcoin driving the momentum, the outlook for BTC as we approach December appears optimistic.

Bitcoin price prediction

Source: Glassnode

However, a complete bull run won't be confirmed until Bitcoin breaks through crucial resistance levels. Data from Glassnode shows four major supply clusters that could obstruct Bitcoin’s journey toward setting a new all-time high. These clusters indicate price ranges where long-term holders (known as HODLers) may decide to sell, especially near break-even points.

For Bitcoin's upward movement to sustain, the broader economic environment needs to remain supportive; otherwise, investor enthusiasm could quickly diminish. On a positive note, the Fear and Greed Index has climbed by eight points this week, shifting investor sentiment from a state of extreme fear to a more moderate fear level.

On-chain metrics are also showing signs of recovery, suggesting a less risky trading atmosphere. The combination of micro and macro reset indicates a solid accumulation phase, with a potential bear trap acting as a catalyst for overcoming resistance.

Bitcoin Price Projections Point Toward Six Figures

As Bitcoin moves through a risk-off phase, liquidity from short positions has increased. Essentially, as BTC's price remained capped and sentiment dipped into extreme fear, significant sell positions formed from traders betting against Bitcoin. Now, as the market shifts back to a more risk-on sentiment, many of these short positions are becoming trapped.

CoinGlass reports that $1.13 billion in liquidations occurred this week, with 61.3% of these from short bets. This marks the first week of the month where short liquidations have taken the lead, following three weeks characterized by over $1 billion in long liquidations.

BTC

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Naturally, the $100k mark stands out as a significant target for Bitcoin's price forecast. The outlook is improving, as metrics related to Bitcoin's capitulation are turning more favorable. The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric is showing positive trends, and realized losses are diminishing. Coupled with a rebound in on-chain metrics, this indicates that Bitcoin supply is being gradually absorbed.

If this momentum maintains itself, the path toward a six-figure Bitcoin price prediction may be taking shape, particularly as the recent wipeout of short liquidity suggests that bullish traders are positioning themselves to reclaim resistance levels.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is on the verge of significant movement, with a potential bear trap acting as a potential catalyst for reaching much-anticipated price levels. As investors navigate this evolving landscape, continued attention to market indicators will be essential in predicting future movements.