Bitcoin Price Forecast for 2026: Anticipations and Predictions

As Bitcoin steps into 2026, expectations are polarized. Some predict a surge towards $200,000, like Tom Lee, while others, including seasoned trader Peter Brandt, caution about possible retests before a significant dip. However, analysts such as YoungHoon Kim suggest that recent downturns may merely be temporary blips before strength returns. With divergent predictions, the reality lies somewhere between fear and euphoria. Let’s examine the significant indicators as the new year unfolds.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin begins 2026 with contrasting predictions about its price trajectory.
Patterns from December suggest potential price increases in January.
Short-term holder sentiment is currently in a capitulation zone.
Long-term holders and whales are not as active, impacting market stability.
The Bitcoin price chart indicates potential breakdown risks alongside critical support levels.

December Trends and Untriggered Bottom Signals

Bitcoin is closing December once again in a negative zone. Historically, when Bitcoin wrapped up December in red, January typically flipped to green. This pattern has previously paved the way for price increases throughout 2025, including the significant rally in April 2025 that lifted BTC to a peak of $126,000 in October.

Bitcoin Price History
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Currently, a similar trend is emerging, with the red December due to short-term BTC holders’ sentiment. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for short-term holders, which indicates their profit and loss sentiment, currently resides in the capitulation zone. The last instance of this was in April 2025, marking a bottom that sparked the upward movement toward the $126,000 peak.

As of November 21, short-term holder NUPL fell to −0.27, even lower than the April bottom signal. Today, it is around −0.14, still reflecting capitulation territory, showing the bottom signal is present, though the expected reaction is not.

Capitulation Metric: Glassnode

Hunter Rogers, co-founder of the Bitcoin yield protocol TeraHash, emphasized the importance of this metric:
“Watching the behavior of short-term holders against the stability of long-term holders is crucial. As long as long-term holders remain steady, the cycle can survive,” he expressed.

If April's capitulation initiated a bottom that led to new highs, the pressing question is: Why hasn't a similar signal prompted an upward reaction now?

Long-Term Holders' Withdrawal

Long-term holders (LTHs) typically engage when short-term holders capitulate, absorbing the excess supply, stabilizing prices, and initiating the next phase. This was evident in April 2025, where LTH net accumulation peaked at 22,237 BTC in a day.

However, the current cushion is weak. From October 1 onward, long-term holders started selling, although they have recently halted their selling, their buying has been modest. The peak in LTH accumulation noted in December 2025 was around 4,862 BTC, while most days lingered closer to 3,500 BTC—less than 20% of April's levels.

HODLers Back To Buying: Glassnode

Rogers further elaborated on the critical role of this group in sustaining cycles:
“Stabilized long-term holders can support scenarios where Bitcoin remains in a reset phase and gradually increases over time,” he noted.

While stability exists among long-term holders, their lack of aggressiveness is concerning as it stunts potential rallies.

Whale Activity Dwindles, Impacting the Market

Whales play a significant role as well. The number of wallets holding 10,000–100,000 BTC has hit a yearly low. Previously, these wallets increased during the April bottom and continued to rise through July, supporting the move towards $126,000. Currently, the absence of whale activity has created a void, preventing the November capitulation from triggering a price movement similar to April's.

Whales Still Absent: Glassnode

Rogers highlighted this situation as vital, stating:
“Retail investors often react late while whales typically absorb supply during downturns. This pattern continues to repeat,” he explained.

At this point, there is a disconnect; although short-term capitulation has been noted, long-term holders and whales are not absorbing the supply similarly to before substantial upside movements. Without whale intervention, the market remains susceptible to downward pressure rather than upward momentum.

Rogers raised important implications for bullish targets:
“Could Bitcoin exceed $150,000 in 2026? Possibly—but it will necessitate patience, liquidity, broader institutional adoption, and time,” he remarked, adding skepticism toward optimistic forecasts like Bitcoin reaching $250,000 this year.

Tom Lee has projected:

Ethereum could hit $7k–$9k in early 2026.
Bitcoin could approach $200k in 2026.
Ethereum has a future trajectory towards $20k.

Rather than labeling it a "supercycle," he describes this as a fundamental shift in market structure.

Insights from the Bitcoin Price Chart for 2026

On the three-day chart, Bitcoin is currently showing a bear flag formation. The measurement of this structure suggests there is a breakdown risk of around 36%. This concern is heightened due to two bearish EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) crossovers on the horizon. The 50-period EMA is closing in on the 100-period EMA, while the 20-period EMA nears the 200-period EMA.

If these crossovers occur, it could indicate weakness as the flag tests support close to $86,420, shedding light on the cautious stance of whales and high-net-worth investors.

Bearish BTC Chart: TradingView

Hunter Rogers echoed this sentiment:
“Bitcoin's movements in 2026 will hinge more on behavior linked to cost and risk,” he stated. Currently, this behavior is stagnant, with whales holding back and prices struggling to progress.

For a genuine price increase, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $105,200 level, which would counter the breakdown prediction. Achieving this could potentially lead back to the previous peak of approximately $126,000.

As Rogers noted:
“Though the market saw a peak near $126,000, this doesn’t signify the end of a cycle. A cycle's end occurs when forced selling drives prices below the average cost.”

This average cost approximates the realized price in the mid-$50,000s.

Rogers identified this as a critical threshold:
“As long as prices remain above the broad realized cost near the mid-$50,000s, market stability persists,” he concluded.

A price drop below this zone would not only flip the market outlook but could also align with a lower target near $38,630, threatening the structural integrity and forcing long-term holders into losses. Above $105,260, the situation improves; below the mid-$50,000s, it deteriorates.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Looking Ahead for BTC in 2026

Currently, Bitcoin's outlook is straightforward:
A breakout above $105,000 or a breakdown below $83,300 could resolve the lingering question: Will 2026 witness a new Bitcoin price peak or initiate a fresh breakdown?