Bitcoin Price Hits a 'Critical' Point as Whale Transfers $348M in BTC to Exchanges

Bitcoin is currently facing a significant moment as its price approaches a crucial support level. If it falls below the True Market Mean at $81,500, there may be a risk of entering a bear market. Recent movements of 4,000 BTC by wallets connected to Matrixport into exchanges have stirred concerns about a potential sell-off.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin could fall into a bear market if it breaks below the True Market Mean at $81,500.
Recent transfers of 4,000 Bitcoin from Matrixport-related wallets to Binance may indicate a looming sell-off.

Bitcoin price at ‘critical’ point as whale moves $348M BTC to exchanges

Importance of Holding the $81,500 Support

Bitcoin's price has been nearing its True Market Mean (TMM), currently at $81,500, as noted by on-chain data provider CryptoQuant. The True Market Mean reflects the cost basis for all active cryptocurrencies that are not dormant and excludes miners.

MorenoDV_, a CryptoQuant analyst, noted that this price level serves as a psychological threshold. "When BTC trades above this point, investors typically feel more secure. Conversely, if we drop below, this support can turn into resistance, as those who bought Bitcoin close to this average price may use any rallies to sell," he explained.

Bitcoin: True Market Mean. Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, the BTC/USD pair maintained a position above this level from January 22 to May 5, 2022. However, after falling below it on May 6, the price plummeted by 61%, reaching a low of $15,500 in November of that same year. This pivotal level's significance is further highlighted by the AVIV Ratio, which measures active market valuation against realized valuation, focusing solely on investor profits.

Bitcoin: AVIV Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades predicted that the BTC/USD pair will continue to experience "choppy price action" until the critical support around the $84,000-$85,000 area is breached or the significant resistance at $94,000 is surpassed.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Large Whale Movements Suggest Potential Sell-off

Bitcoin's pivotal moment is occurring amid escalated actions by whales, who seem to be intensifying their capitulation. Lookonchain identified that two wallets associated with financial services firm Matrixport transferred an impressive 4,000 BTC, approximately valued at $347.6 million, to the Binance exchange.

Source: Lookonchain

Such large inflows typically suggest an intention to sell or hedge positions. Analyst 0xNobler commented that Matrixport has "dumped 80% of its crypto holdings over the last 5 days." Furthermore, as reported by Cointelegraph, long-term holders and "OG" whales have been aggressively offloading their Bitcoin since mid-October, raising the possibility of a lasting price correction that could see BTC drop below the $50,000 mark.