Bitcoin Price Levels: Key to Transitioning from Bear to Bull Market

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged 6.54% so far in 2026, indicating emerging strength despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and cautious optimism returning to the market.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has gained 6.54% in early 2026, indicating potential market strength amidst geopolitical uncertainties.
A critical price level near $100,000 could signify a transition from bearish to bullish market conditions.
Analysts are observing significant inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin itself, suggesting renewed market interest.
Macro factors, such as changes in oil supply and Venezuela's Bitcoin reserves, may also influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

As the bullish recovery progresses, analysts have pinpointed a significant price level that may determine whether Bitcoin shifts from a bearish trend to a renewed bullish phase in 2026.

Bitcoin's Early 2026 Performance

Despite lingering market fears at the end of 2025, Bitcoin has started the new year on a robust note. On Monday, it climbed above $95,000, a price not reached since early December. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was priced at $93,230, reflecting a 0.69% increase over the last 24 hours. The overall cryptocurrency market also gained momentum, with many sectors reporting substantial increases as risk appetite gradually returns.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Analysts attribute this resurgence to a combination of factors, including new year allocations following year-end tax selling, increased safe-haven demand amid US actions in Venezuela, and an overall improvement in market sentiment. This positive shift is further reinforced by significant inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). BeInCrypto reported that on January 5, ETFs saw near $695 million in inflows, their largest single-day increase in three months.

Essential Conditions for Bitcoin's Bullish Trend Reversal

During this recovery period, analyst Crypto Dan identified a crucial on-chain level that could influence Bitcoin's broader trend. Dan highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading below an important indicator: the cost basis of coins that were last moved 6 to 12 months ago, which is near $100,000. Historically, a price below this threshold indicates bearish market conditions and elevated downside risks.

Bitcoin’s Critical Cost Basis Level. Source: CryptoQuant

Dan explained that surpassing this cost basis would signify a significant shift in market dynamics. In previous cycles, this move has been associated with a transition to bullish conditions, as selling pressure from holders who are underwater diminishes, allowing prices to rise.

"After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin is beginning to show early signs of recovery, making this level vital to monitor. If it fails to break above, it will indicate that the broader downtrend is still effective. Ultimately, the market's transition to a bullish phase hinges on this crucial level — and we won’t have to wait long for clarity," Dan noted.

The pressing question now is when Bitcoin will attempt to test this key level. Analyst Ted Pillows observed that Bitcoin is currently trying to reclaim its opening level from the previous year. He suggests that a few daily closings above this consolidation zone could set the stage for a move toward $100,000 in the coming weeks.

“A breakdown would likely send BTC towards the $90,000-$91,000 support zone,” Pillows commented, expressing confidence that a correction wouldn't plunge as deeply given the substantial demand for Bitcoin.

The inflow exceeded $1 billion in the first two trading days of Bitcoin. Overall, I anticipate a brief period of consolidation before breaking through the $100,000 mark and reaching new critical levels.

Broader Macro Influences on Bitcoin's Trajectory

In addition to chart-based indicators, broader macroeconomic conditions are also affecting predictions for Bitcoin's next movements. Some analysts are considering the potential increase in oil supply if the US gains control over Venezuela’s reserves, a situation that could lower energy prices and change global liquidity trends.

Lower energy prices could stimulate investments into alternative assets like Bitcoin. In this context, the cryptocurrency markets might benefit as investors shift their portfolios in response to evolving macroeconomic factors. Additionally, Venezuela's significant Bitcoin reserves of over 600,000 coins may become a long-term market consideration. If these holdings were confiscated, it could tighten supply and support higher Bitcoin valuations over time.