Bitcoin Price Likely to Hit Bottom This Week Amid November Decline

Bitcoin price bottom due 'this week' with BTC down 20% in November

Bitcoin is heading toward its worst November since 2018, but analysts suggest a rebound could happen soon.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin is experiencing its weakest November since 2018’s bear market.
Historically, December has mirrored performance trends after negative November months.
AI forecasts that the BTC/USD price will reach a local low this week.

Bitcoin is on course for its worst November performance since the bear market encountered in 2018. Data shows that the month has been notably disappointing, with Bitcoin pricing dropping by about 20% as of this month. Historically, December tends to mirror November's bearish trends.

Reflecting on November 2018's Bear Market

As Bitcoin continues to struggle to regain momentum, it finds itself in bear market territory, showing a drawdown of up to 36% from October’s peak price of $87,500. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin is currently down 20% this month, a trend that mirrors the bearish performance not observed since 2018. This was a year that followed another bullish run that peaked at $20,000.

Commenting on the historical data, Sumit Kapoor, founder of the crypto trading community WiseAdvice, noted on social media, “Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red.”

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Since 2013, Bitcoin has usually enjoyed average gains over 40% in November. Conversely, December’s performance has been milder, averaging just a 5% increase.

Expectations for a Gradual Recovery into 2026

Despite the current decline, network economist Timothy Peterson shared a more hopeful outlook on Bitcoin's prospects as the year draws to a close. His AI-driven prediction tool indicates that Bitcoin might be nearing a local low this week, with recovery expected to be slow but steady through the end of the year.

He stated on social media, "AI-driven Bitcoin simulation estimates that the bottom is in or will occur this week, suggesting a slow recovery into the new year."

Bitcoin AI price model. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Peterson also cautioned that this model does not account for unpredictable external factors, such as macroeconomic conditions. Other analyses have suggested that reflecting on Bitcoin’s price movements this year might indicate a significant rebound similar to patterns observed in 2015.

Although he described the idea as “hopium,” Peterson noted a historical parallel: “Bitcoin was at this exact same point at this time in 2015. It then surged 45% and ended the year up 33%."

With these insights, many investors will be looking closely at Bitcoin's performance in the coming weeks, hoping for a turnaround as they transition into December.