Bitcoin Price on the Rise: Is $100K on the Horizon for Short-Term Holders?

As the new year gains momentum, Bitcoin’s price has surged past the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. This notable climb has sparked fresh discussions about the current market dynamics, especially as Bitcoin seeks to reclaim its six-figure valuation.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price recently crossed the $97,000 threshold, intensifying market discussions.
The average realized price for short-term holders (STHs) stands around $102,000.
STHs are currently facing losses, prompting potential decisions on whether to hold or sell.
Analysts emphasize that the STH realized price is vital for future bullish momentum.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin's price increase has captured significant attention, particularly regarding short-term holders (STHs) in the cryptocurrency market. A notable analysis suggests that the STH realized price will play a critical role in determining future market movements.

Understanding the Impact of Short-Term Holders on Bitcoin Pricing

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted the average realized price of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) as a significant metric to watch. This price level represents the average amount at which the latest group of Bitcoin investors (those who acquired their coins within the last 1-3 months) purchased their assets.

According to Darkfost's analysis, the current STH realized price hovers around $102,000, indicating that most short-term investors find themselves at a loss. This evaluation incorporates the recent movement of 800,000 BTC by Coinbase, which adds a layer of context to the analysis.

Bitcoin price
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X

As Bitcoin approaches the STH realized price, these investors face a crucial decision: either they hold their investments in anticipation of future gains or sell once they break even. This group is particularly reactive, as demonstrated by recent patterns in exchange inflows. Darkfost pointed out that monitoring the STH realized price is essential, especially after any profit-taking actions are complete.

He also indicated that historically, Bitcoin prices trading below this cost basis present good accumulation opportunities, although caution is advised during bear markets, where short-term holders often experience extended downturns.

The Importance of STH Cost Basis for Bitcoin's Market Momentum

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish echoed Darkfost’s views in a recent X post, stating that the average STH realized price represents a critical inflection point for Bitcoin. He noted that regaining this cost basis could indicate that recent buyers are once again in a profitable position.

Beamish emphasized that if Bitcoin can reclaim the STH realized price, it would likely kick-start a bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to reach this price could keep Bitcoin in a recovery phase. As of now, Bitcoin’s price rests around $95,300, showing minimal fluctuations over the past day.

Bitcoin price
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView