Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bulls Anticipate Over 60% Rebound as ETF Cost-Basis Cycle Resets

Bitcoin price predictions indicate a possible significant rebound in value over the next 180 days, driven by a new trend in ETF-driven cost-basis cycles. This suggests a shift from Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycles, raising anticipation for a rally of over 60%. However, fading ETF inflows, risks from the Federal Reserve, and a decreasing safety margin for investment strategies could jeopardize this support.

Key Takeaways

Predictions suggest Bitcoin could see a 60%+ price rebound within 180 days due to changes in ETF dynamics.
In the past day, Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) traded between $87.6k and $90.3k.
Historical patterns show Bitcoin often finds support at its ETF investor cost basis after reaching new all-time highs.
Institutional investor behaviors may cause price volatility, complicating predictions.
Recent declining inflows into ETFs could pressure Bitcoin's market value.

Bitcoin price tests ETF cost-basis support near $94k in new cycle

Analyzing Bitcoin's Price Movements

Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between approximately $87.6k and $90.3k recently, with the current value falling just under $90k — indicating an intraday movement of around 3% and a net gain of about 1 to 2%.

As noted by Copper in its analysis, the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track Bitcoin’s spot price has changed how this digital asset behaves, resulting in what they term the “cost-basis returns cycle.”

Current Sentiment Among Analysts

Bitcoin's behavior from 2024 to 2025 has followed a distinct pattern: achieving new all-time highs, undergoing sharp corrections, and then rebounding to support levels at the cost basis for ETF investors. This cyclical behavior has been documented in a report by Copper, noting that there have been three instances since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, each providing returns exceeding 60%.

Many suggest that sharp price corrections are linked to institutional investors adjusting their portfolios when Bitcoin enters price discovery mode. This adjustment can transform Bitcoin's volatility into actual returns. The report states, “Institutions are not ‘staking sats’ — in fact, many do not prioritize sats now that Bitcoin is accessible through equities-style ETF shares. They focus on risk-adjusted contributions to their portfolio.”

Bitcoin price prediction bulls bet on 60%+ rebound as ETF cost-basis cycle resets again - 1

Institutions generally allocate between 2% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. During these cycles, without rebalancing, a 2% allocation can increase to 6.2% in less than 180 days, while a 5% allocation may rise to nearly 10%, according to Copper.

Fadi Aboualfa, Copper’s head of research, highlighted that Bitcoin's current trading near its ETF investor cost basis suggests a strong possibility of a significant upward movement in the next 180 days. If the cost basis increases as it has in past cycles, the potential market value could rise to much higher levels.

Market Conditions Affecting Bitcoin

However, analysts point out that there are currently few catalysts to propel Bitcoin's growth. The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was largely anticipated, and there’s speculation that only one more cut may occur in 2026.

Data indicates that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street have significantly decreased in December and have not balanced out high outflows from November. Major ETF products from BlackRock and Fidelity now control a significant portion of Bitcoin's market cap, implying that continued outflows could put further pressure on the asset's valuation.

Furthermore, Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, now holds 660,625 bitcoins, which is over 3% of the total supply. Their acquisitions have been financed largely through debt, and they may face the necessity to sell if their market value relative to Bitcoin holdings falls below critical levels.

Bitcoin price prediction bulls bet on 60%+ rebound as ETF cost-basis cycle resets again - 2

Risks and Psychological Impact

Recent research from Amberdata points out that the margin of safety for Bitcoin investments has decreased to levels not seen since early 2024. The documentation discusses how early investors exhibit patience, allowing them to endure potential market pullbacks, while later investors may feel anxious due to recent purchases at peak prices.

Amberdata cautions that a decline below certain support levels could impact investor psychology and lead to negative market sentiment, translating into unfavorable news coverage.

Despite a year-to-date return for Bitcoin of approximately +30–35%, which appears robust in isolation, it’s relatively modest compared to peaks earlier in the cycle. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s performance has occasionally lagged behind traditional assets, indicating a maturation phase characterized by risk-adjusted returns over pure speculation.

From a trading standpoint, the last 24 hours reflect typical range activity following a strong upward trend earlier in the year. The market displays reasonable liquidity, with intraday volatility suitable for trading but not excessive, and it seems to be stabilizing between a support level of $80k and the psychological target of $100k.