Bitcoin Price Set to Drop to $25,000: Analyzing the Potential Bottom

Bitcoin

Summary:
Crypto analyst Crypto Whale predicts that Bitcoin's price may fall to as low as $25,000, marking a potential macro bottom as the cryptocurrency navigates through its current bear market. There are expectations for market fluctuations and a broad altcoin expansion, while concerns about recession risks may further impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin could potentially drop to $25,000, forming a macro bottom by 2026.
The current market environment remains unstable, oscillating between bullish and bearish trends.
A death cross has emerged that may signify a price drop to around $38,000.
The crypto market is experiencing high volatility, with the possibility of a Bitcoin price dip to $50,000 if recession risks increase.

Understanding the Potential Bitcoin Price Drop

In a recent X post, Crypto Whale shared insights indicating that Bitcoin's price might reach a macro bottom near $25,000 sometime in 2026. This conclusion comes from analyzing the monthly chart, which historically suggests that significant price drops often create long-term buying opportunities. Importantly, this dip does not signal the end of the current cycle but rather a reset before the next market expansion.

Bitcoin Chart
Source: Chart from Crypto Whale on X

In another X post, Crypto Whale emphasized that we are not in a bear market yet and outlined how the 2026 bull run might evolve. He anticipates that the crypto market will experience a Bitcoin-led rally this month, with a broader expansion of altcoins expected in February. However, he warns of a potential bull trap emerging in March that could lead to increased volatility and panic selling.

Following these developments, Crypto Whale forecasts a capitulation phase in May, with a definitive confirmation of a bear market expected in June. This perspective aligns with observations from the research firm XWIN Research, which noted that Bitcoin has not definitively transitioned into a bullish trend. Instead, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience high volatility, leaving it neither clearly bullish nor bearish.

XWIN Research also highlighted the risk of Bitcoin's price decline to as low as $50,000, which could stem from growing recession concerns. These include deleveraging and ETF outflows that might push Bitcoin below the $80,000 mark, making $50,000 a real possibility.

Analyzing the Death Cross and its Market Implications

Another crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, recently pointed out a concerning signal known as a death cross seen on the Bitcoin weekly chart. This technical indicator has historically resulted in significant price corrections, with Martinez predicting that Bitcoin could experience a 50% to 60% drop, potentially falling to around $38,000.

This death cross, which occurs when the 10-week moving average falls below the 50-week moving average, has appeared previously in September 2014, June 2018, March 2020, and January 2022, leading to price corrections of 67%, 54%, 53%, and 64% respectively.

Martinez believes that the price range between $50,000 and $38,000 could prove to be an attractive area for long-term accumulation. He noted that the market will reveal its next move over time.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $88,700, reflecting a rise over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

BTC Trading Chart
BTC trading at $89,038 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com