Bitcoin Price Set to Remain Stagnant Until Key Changes Occur, Says Analyst

Bitcoin has now experienced four consecutive months below the $100,000 threshold for the first time since reaching that milestone back in 2024. This scenario indicates a return to a bear market, and this downward trend has continued. Despite signs of market recovery, sellers still appear to dominate. One crypto analyst has observed a concerning trend related to Bitcoin, suggesting that participation from smaller investors is dwindling.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has been below $100,000 for four months, indicating a return to bear market conditions.
There has been a noticeable decline in retail investor participation, suggesting demand destruction.
The absence of retail investors hinders Bitcoin's price recovery prospects.
A rise in retail investment above 10% is needed for a potential resurgence of Bitcoin's price.
Historical trends suggest that declining retail activity often precedes substantial bear markets.

Bitcoin Price Sinks to New Weekly Low

Retail Investor Participation Declines; Bitcoin Faces Challenges

The ongoing downtrend of Bitcoin seems to reflect a decline in liquidity within the cryptocurrency market, illustrated by a drop in retail trading activity. A chart shared by crypto analyst Crypto Tice indicates that retail investments have significantly decreased since Bitcoin's peak price.

The analyst points out that transactions below $10,000 have seen the most considerable decline. This suggests that retail investors, who are smaller and not institutional investors, are no longer investing in Bitcoin at the same rate as before. According to the analyst, this trend marks a destruction of demand, which historically signals impending substantial bear markets for Bitcoin. The pattern remains consistent: retail investors exit the market first, then trading volumes decline, leading to clearer signs of a bear market.

Bitcoin price Source: X

If the analysis holds true, it implies that Bitcoin's decline may continue. The data strongly suggests that a bear market is looming, and Crypto Tice advises caution, warning that this is not a time for "blind optimism."

What Conditions Are Needed for a Bull Market?

Bull markets are typically fueled by an influx of liquidity, prompting a surge in buying activity. Retail investors play a crucial role in this dynamic; their absence can significantly hinder market recovery. The analyst emphasizes that until retail investors re-enter the market, Bitcoin's recovery is likely to be limited, capping its potential upside.

Referring to the shared data, retail investment levels need to rise above 10% again to ignite a sustained price increase. Over the past year, the highest level reached was 30% at the beginning of 2025, which preceded Bitcoin hitting several all-time high prices. A return to such levels could initiate the next significant price surge, possibly breaking through the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com BTC maintains $70,000 support | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com