Bitcoin Price Will Struggle to Surge Until Key Factors Change, Says Analyst

Summary:
Bitcoin has been trading below the $100,000 threshold for four consecutive months, indicating a return to a bear market. An analyst points out that diminished participation from smaller, retail investors could further contribute to a continuing downtrend in Bitcoin's price.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has remained under $100,000 for four months, marking a persistent bear market.
A significant drop in retail investor activity has been observed, particularly in transactions under $10,000.
The analyst warns that until retail investors return, Bitcoin's price recovery will likely remain limited.
A return of retail investment to at least 10% could signal the potential for a new bull market, aiming for an increase above $100,000.

Bitcoin Price Sinks to New Weekly Low

Declining Participation from Retail Investors Poses a Risk to Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recent downtrend highlights a concerning decrease in liquidity across the crypto market, reflected in reduced retail trading activity. According to analyst Crypto Tice, the decline in participation became evident after Bitcoin reached its all-time high. His analysis shows that transactions under $10,000 have seen the largest drop, indicating that smaller, non-institutional investors are stepping back from investing in Bitcoin.

This situation, as the analyst points out, represents "demand destruction," a common precursor to significant bear markets in Bitcoin's history. The pattern typically involves retail investors exiting the market first, followed by a drop in transaction volumes, which are strong indicators of a looming bear market.

Bitcoin price
Source: X

If the analyst's observations hold true, it suggests that Bitcoin may continue its downward trajectory. Tice emphasizes the current market signals, stating that the possibility of a bear market is increasing, and advises caution in expectations, labeling this period as a time for "careful consideration" rather than "blind optimism."

The Search for a Bull Market Recovery

A successful bull market typically relies on a resurgence of liquidity, sparking a wave of buying activity. In this context, retail investors significantly affect market dynamics; their absence often indicates trouble ahead for price recovery. The analyst suggests that until these retail investors re-enter the market, Bitcoin's upward price potential will be limited.

According to the data presented, a rise in retail investment exceeding 10% will be crucial for initiating a sustained recovery. The greatest retail investment percentage seen over the past year was 30%, coinciding with the peak prices seen at the beginning of 2025. A return to this level could ignite another substantial price surge, potentially pushing Bitcoin above the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC maintains $70,000 support | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com