Bitcoin 'Rallies Are for Selling': Key Arguments from Market Bears

Bitcoin has climbed 14.50% from its recent lows of $80,600, inching back toward $93,000. This has sparked a debate among traders about whether we’re witnessing a bull “comeback” or the beginning of a new bear market.

Key Takeaways:

Analysts warn that Bitcoin's recent rebound could be a bull trap, with potential risks pushing prices down to as low as $40,000.
Google Trends data indicates a possible rally up to $97,000 before a subsequent market correction occurs.

Several analysts are skeptical, describing Bitcoin's current and upcoming price movements as “rallies for selling,” rather than indicators of a sustained rise toward lofty year-end targets of $150,000 and beyond.

Bitcoin 'Rallies Are for Selling': Top 3 Arguments from BTC Market Bears

Bear Flag Pattern Suggests a Price Drop Ahead

One of the main reasons cited for a potential Bitcoin bull trap is a classic technical pattern known as the “bear flag.” This pattern typically resolves with another downward leg during market downtrends.

Analysts such as Mister Crypto and Celeb Franzen highlight this bearish continuation pattern during Bitcoin's recovery phase, with some suggesting the price could easily fall to around $80,000.

BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

Further analysis of the bear flag points toward a December target price of around $77,100. This estimate is calculated by projecting the previous downtrend's height onto a possible breakdown point near the $88,000 support level, which represents a drop of about 16% from current prices.

Reflecting on 2021: A Fractal Pattern that Signals Danger

Crypto analyst Leshka observes that Bitcoin’s current price structure closely mirrors the events of the 2021 market cycle. He presented a fractal illustrating a near-identical double-top formation, followed by a sharp drop into cycle support and a misleading rebound—ultimately setting up a bull trap before a substantial crash.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView/Leshka

During the 2021 cycle, this similar pattern was followed by a drastic depreciation, cutting Bitcoin’s value in half. According to Leshka, we may see Bitcoin return to the $40,000 range in early 2026 if this pattern repeats itself.

Analyst Alex Wacy echoes this concern, noting that Bitcoin's retreat from its long-term ascending trendline typically results in significant drawdowns, averaging up to 70%.

BTC/USDT Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

Recently, interest in the term “Bitcoin bear market” surged on Google, reaching its highest level in five years, as per analyst AndrewBTC. This coincides with growing fears among investors, stemming from historical precedents associated with market selloffs.

Earlier spikes in fear have corresponded with substantial corrections in the Bitcoin market, such as in May 2021 when Bitcoin was near $60,000 before a plunge of over 50%, and again in June 2022 when it fell near $26,000, ultimately leading to a cycle low around $15,450.

BTC/USDT Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

Analysts suggest that while Bitcoin could rally toward the $97,000 range shortly, it may simply serve to trap bullish investors, according to AndrewBTC.

This situation highlights the precarious nature of the current Bitcoin market, urging traders to proceed with caution as discussions around potential bear traps and sell-offs continue to intensify.