Bitcoin Rally Signals Strong Demand on Coinbase: Are We Back in a Bull Market?

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price seems to be driven by genuine spot demand on Coinbase. Data showing increased spot activity on the exchange indicates that the recent price increase is supported by actual purchases rather than just speculative trading in derivatives markets. This distinction is important, as spot buying signifies a real commitment of capital, rather than a temporary wager.

Key Takeaways

The recent Bitcoin rally appears to be fueled by genuine spot demand on Coinbase, signifying real capital commitment.
Bitcoin's surge has caught some traders off guard, emphasizing a disconnect with the performance of equities.
The upcoming Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could resolve regulatory uncertainties, potentially sparking increased institutional interest in Bitcoin.
Understanding key market indicators, like the 50-week moving average, is crucial for assessing Bitcoin's price movements moving forward.

Bitcoin

Understanding Risk Management Amid Structural Demand

Since the news of the Powell subpoena broke on Sunday, the Bitcoin rally has been closely associated with buyers on Coinbase. Crypto trader Alex Krüger pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) that both the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicate consistent spot accumulation. This phenomenon has fostered a rally that even some Bitcoin enthusiasts have found surprising. For over a month, the dominant narrative in various crypto discussions has been that BTC has been underperforming while equities and commodities have risen.

Interestingly, the performance of equities isn't as robust as it seems; approximately 40% of S&P 500 stocks were actually in the red as of 2025 (precisely 39.2%). This perception disparity plays a significant role, and the U.S. Department of Justice's (DOJ) action regarding Powell has served as a crucial macro indicator for Bitcoin. According to Krüger, Bitcoin's long-term value proposition lies in its ability to hedge against the risks posed by central bank monetary policies.

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BTC’s rally is supported by spot buying | Source: Chart from Alex Krüger on X

On Monday, Bitcoin saw a slight increase, although it was modest. Krüger notes that the pivotal point for Bitcoin remains the 50-week moving average (WMA), currently near $101,420. Meanwhile, the trader plans to secure some profits by taking advantage of short liquidations just above the $100,000 threshold.

The Role of Institutional Flows in Bitcoin's Growth

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be discussed today, January 15th, 2026, in the Senate Banking Committee. An update from BTC_road_to200k on X highlights that legislators will debate and refine the final version of this bill before it progresses.

This legislation is significant because it aims to resolve the ongoing regulatory uncertainties between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These uncertainties have been a significant barrier for large institutional players considering an entry into Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Moreover, the passage of the Clarity Act could mark a turning point, laying out guidelines that would encourage confidence among banks, pension funds, and major investors. This shift often leads to increased demand and stronger price movements for Bitcoin. As regulatory uncertainties diminish, the market may experience a renewed influx of institutional capital, which is certainly a positive sign for Bitcoin's future.

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BTC trading at $96,780 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com