Bitcoin Recovers to $90K – Is This the True Bottom for BTC in 2026?

As we enter 2026, Bitcoin is displaying strong bullish momentum. With significant ETF inflows and continuous buying from large investors, also known as whales, the market appears to be moving in a synchronized manner, a phenomenon many are referring to as "coordinated accumulation." This situation raises the possibility that Bitcoin may have already reached its price bottom.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has started 2026 with strong bullish momentum, reclaiming the $90K level after a period of price stability.
There is a debate about whether current trading strategies are grounded in solid research or are simply fueled by optimism.
Monitoring on-chain data is essential to validate market patterns.
Disconnect exists between whale trading behavior and ETF performance, indicating potential risks for Bitcoin's upward trend.

Bitcoin reclaims $90K, fueling bottom talk: Should traders rotate into BTC?

But is there data to support this? On a technical level, Bitcoin (BTC) has started off 2026 with a 2.8% increase, reclaiming the $90,000 mark after a six-week period of price stability. This recovery strengthens the notion that the bottom could indeed be established.

BTC
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

If this hypothesis holds true, then regaining the $90K level might be just the initial step. Currently, trading activity is showing positive results. Lookonchain data has identified a trader who took a long position on Bitcoin with 20x leverage, who has since seen roughly 55% unrealized profits, entering the trade near the $87K level. On January 2nd, $326 million worth of short positions were liquidated, marking the largest short liquidation in a month and coinciding with Bitcoin's climb to $90K. In summary, market flows and liquidations are beginning to indicate a bullish trend.

The crucial question that arises is whether this is a sound trading strategy or merely excessive optimism. AMBCrypto suggests that differentiating between the two will be vital in determining if Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum or if this rally turns out to be a "bull trap."

Analyzing the Bitcoin Situation: Strategy vs. Market Sentiment

Monitoring Bitcoin's on-chain data has never been more essential. The reasoning is straightforward: The Fear & Greed Index has risen by 7 points, nearing the threshold of exiting the "fear" zone. Additionally, BTC's funding rates shifting to positive is not a coincidence; optimism is high, and traders are increasingly betting on further price increases.

Thus, it is crucial to see if on-chain data substantiates this optimistic positioning. Any sudden market reversal could trigger a rapid change, pushing the index back into fear territory. Furthermore, with Bitcoin whales actively trading, the potential for market volatility is significant.

Bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

The preceding chart underscores this inherent risk. By excluding exchange addresses, the data reveals a decline in whale balances (first chart). Likewise, addresses that hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC (which include ETFs) demonstrate a similar downward trend (second chart).

It is also important to note that it is premature to regard Bitcoin ETFs as reliable support for market bids. Historically, declines have resulted in assets under management (AUM) dropping to $67.6 billion, the lowest figure since June 2025.

Overall, this presents a significant disconnect between current trading positions and on-chain data. While the market interprets whale movements as "coordinated accumulation," the lagging performance of ETFs suggests that Bitcoin’s potential for growth remains vulnerable.