Bitcoin Recovery Depends on Short-Term Holder Profitability Surpassing 50%: Insights from Glassnode

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has detailed how a shift in Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) profitability might be essential for a lasting price recovery.

Key Takeaways

Glassnode emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin short-term holder profitability for a sustainable price recovery.
The Supply in Profit metric for Bitcoin STHs is currently below 50%, indicating low profitability among recent market entrants.
Historically, profitability levels above 50% have signaled potential price rallies in the past.
Bitcoin's price has recently risen and is targeting the $72,000 mark, suggesting a possible recovery trend.

Bitcoin

Understanding Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Profitability

In a recent post on platform X, Glassnode highlighted a significant trend concerning the Supply in Profit metric for Bitcoin's short-term holders (STHs). This metric indicates the percentage of Bitcoin currently retained with unrealized gains.

For this discussion, we specifically focus on the profitable supply held by Bitcoin STHs, which includes addresses that acquired their tokens within the last 155 days. This group represents one of the two main market segments, defined by holding duration; the other segment consists of long-term holders (LTHs).

Statistically, the longer an investor retains their coins, the less likely they are to sell them. Therefore, STHs, with their relatively short holding periods, are viewed as less confident participants in the market, while LTHs are often referred to as the "diamond hands."

The graph below illustrates that new market entrants enjoyed high profitability before Bitcoin experienced a downward trend in Q4 2025:

Bitcoin STH Supply In Profit

According to the data, the profitability metric has dropped significantly in recent days due to a price decline, leading many of the STH-held tokens to fall below water. The metric has lingered below the crucial 50% threshold for some time, indicating low profitability for this group.

Historically, a stressed STH market coincides with reduced demand. Glassnode notes, “Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.”

Previous instances where the STH Supply in Profit rose above 50% are marked on the chart, with the most recent being the rebound in prices during the first half of 2025. At that time, the return of profits for STHs spurred a Bitcoin rally, achieving new all-time highs (ATHs).

Given this contextual analysis, it is plausible that a recovery in the STH Supply in Profit metric above the 50% mark could signal a positive shift for Bitcoin. “Stay tuned to this level as it could be a key indicator for any sustained recovery,” as highlighted by Glassnode.

Current Bitcoin Price Movement

Bitcoin is currently making another attempt to breach the $72,000 level, having surged by 3% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The price of the cryptocurrency has gradually climbed back over the last few days, reflecting a promising upward trend.