Bitcoin Retail Optimism Sees a Resurgence by Year-End 2025

Bitcoin Retail Optimism Sees a Resurgence by Year-End 2025—What Usually Happens Next?

Recent data indicates a renewed sense of optimism from retail investors regarding Bitcoin, as reflected in social media sentiment. Historical patterns suggest that such bullish expectations can often lead to unexpected market behavior. Let's delve into the specifics of current trends and what they might mean for the future.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's social media sentiment has turned positive, with a spike in "bullish" comments.
Historical data suggests that retail optimism may not always lead to price increases, as market movements can often go against popular sentiment.
Recent trading sessions have shown stagnant returns across various geographical markets.
Bitcoin's price remains steady around $88,000 as it consolidates.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s Social Media Sentiment Shows Greed Rising

A recent update from analytics firm Santiment highlights the current social media sentiment towards Bitcoin. The indicator of interest is "Social Volume," which tracks posts, messages, and discussions that mention Bitcoin on major social platforms.

To assess sentiment around Bitcoin effectively, Santiment analyzed both bullish and bearish terms linked to BTC. They specifically looked for phrases like “higher” and “above” to signify positive sentiment, while “lower” and “below” were used to identify negative sentiment.

Here’s a chart from Santiment illustrating the changes in Bitcoin’s Social Volume over the past few months: Bitcoin Social Volume

As seen in the graph, there has been a slight increase in Bitcoin's Social Volume recently. However, the current spike indicates that bullish comments are outpacing bearish ones, hinting that retail investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin's price trajectory as we approach the New Year.

Nevertheless, history suggests that this bullish outlook may not be a reliable indicator for positive price movement. Typically, the Bitcoin market tends to behave contrary to the majority’s expectations. Santiment has pointed out that recent short-term price movements have frequently aligned with this pattern—where spikes in bearish sentiment have preceded price recoveries, while surges in social media optimism have often coincided with market peaks.

Given this recurring trend, the current increase in positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin might end up serving as a bearish indicator. However, the degree of greed observed has not reached extreme levels yet.

In addition, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s cumulative returns have leveled off across trading sessions, according to insights from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn on X.

Bitcoin Returns By Session

The trading sessions depicted in the chart represent times when specific markets are active. Throughout early December, Bitcoin’s gains were largely driven by US trading sessions. Recently, however, cumulative returns have stagnated across all major markets, including the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, pointing to neutral market momentum without significant divergence among trader behaviors, as noted by Maartunn.

Current BTC Price

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has entered a consolidation phase, trading around $88,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The chart above shows Bitcoin's price trend over the last five days, reflecting this consolidation period.