Bitcoin Risk: Potential Drop Below $50,000 by 2028 Without Quantum Solutions, Says Capriole Founder

The founder of Capriole Investments has highlighted a significant risk to Bitcoin posed by advancements in Quantum Computing, predicting a 34% chance that it could challenge Bitcoin's security within the next three years.

Key Takeaways

Capriole Investments founder warns of a 34% chance that Quantum Computing could undermine Bitcoin in the next three years.
A significant portion of BTC remains dormant, with risks of flooding the market if compromised.
Urgent discussions are needed for solutions to counter the potential Quantum threat.
Current Bitcoin price stands at approximately $86,500, with expectations for potential declines if no fix is made by 2028.

Bitcoin

Understanding the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

As Quantum Computing technology progresses, many in the Bitcoin community are expressing concerns about its potential impact on cryptocurrency. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, has been a prominent voice on this issue.

Recently, Edwards delivered a presentation at the Global Blockchain Show in Abu Dhabi discussing the threats posed by Quantum Computing to Bitcoin. He has also shared his thoughts on social media platform X. According to Edwards, there is a 34% probability that Quantum Computing could undermine Bitcoin's cryptography within the next three years. Consequently, he has placed a 34% discount on Bitcoin’s current value, stating, "Given a 2-3 year timeline to deploy a fix, this is the current discount rate," adding that "it is growing. Every. Single. Day."

Bitcoin Quantum Break
The probability of Quantum breaking BTC by year | Source: @caprioleio on X

This estimation is based on data from seven different sources that provide timelines for breakthroughs in Quantum Computing. If these projections hold true, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that Quantum threats will impact blockchain technology by 2030.

Implications of a Quantum Breakthrough on Bitcoin

What would occur if Quantum Computing successfully compromised Bitcoin's cryptography? Today’s wallets may be secured, but older wallets could be at risk. A significant portion of Bitcoin has remained dormant for years, and a Quantum breakthrough might enable those holdings to be reintroduced into the market.

A notable example of this is the wallet attributed to Bitcoin's mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, which holds approximately 1,096,354 BTC—valued at around $95 billion today. If these coins were sold, it could dramatically affect Bitcoin’s price not only due to the volume involved but also by causing a loss of confidence among investors.

Given this looming threat, Edwards emphasizes the urgent need for a solution. However, there has yet to be a consensus within the community about what that solution should entail or when it should be implemented.

Commenting on the situation, Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, took to X to share his perspective, stating, “Quantum computing won’t break Bitcoin—it will harden it. The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins remain frozen.” In this optimistic view, coins linked to Satoshi and early miners would become permanently inaccessible.

Future Predictions

Edwards warns that if a solution is not implemented soon, Bitcoin could face one of its most significant bear markets in history. "If we haven’t deployed a fix by 2028, I expect Bitcoin will be below $50K and continue to decline until it’s addressed," he cautioned.

Current Bitcoin Price

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $86,500, showing a decrease of 5.7% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView