Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Falls Below 30 for the Fourth Time in History

Summary:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) against gold (XAU) has dropped below the 30 mark for only the fourth time in Bitcoin's history, indicating a potential oversold condition compared to gold. This significant event comes as Bitcoin has struggled in recent months, whereas gold has thrived amidst market uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

The Bitcoin RSI against gold has fallen below 30 for only the fourth time, suggesting Bitcoin may be oversold relative to gold.
Bitcoin's value has dropped by 22.7% since Q4 2025, while gold has increased by 31% in the same period.
Historical patterns show that previous declines under RSI 30 coincided with market bottoms for Bitcoin.
Investors are advised to be cautious and conduct their own research before making decisions, as past trends do not guarantee future outcomes.

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Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Declines

The RSI for Bitcoin compared to gold has recently plunged below the 30 threshold, a situation that has arisen only three times prior in Bitcoin's history. This development suggests that Bitcoin might be experiencing an oversold condition relative to gold. Amid rising fears in the market, Bitcoin's performance has diminished since the fourth quarter of 2025, while gold has capitalized on this uncertainty and achieved record gains.

Since Q4 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a loss of 22.7%, whereas gold has appreciated by 31%. The weekly RSI for the BTC/XAU pair has consistently fallen, beginning its descent from a high of 62.18 in July 2025. This continuous decline has now led to the RSI dropping below 30 for the first time since the 2022 bear market.

Historical Trends

Market expert Michaël van de Poppe noted that the latest drop below 30 might mirror past occurrences rather than indicating a changing trend. His analysis comes as Bitcoin faces sustained bearish sentiment while investors have been shifting their focus to gold for its perceived safety.

In August 2025, the BTC/XAU pair saw a decline after reaching a high of 37, dropping down to 29 ounces of gold in early October 2025. A slight rebound occurred, bringing it back to 32 ounces; however, new bearish pressures in Q4 2025 caused a further drop to 17 ounces at the time of writing.

While the weekly RSI continued its descent since breaking the 62.18 threshold in July 2025, it now stands at 27.92. This marks the lowest reading since June 2022, just after the fallout from the Terra ecosystem.

Positive Historical Signals

Van de Poppe emphasized that this dip below 30 has occurred only three times since Bitcoin's inception, and coincidentally, each instance marked a significant bottom during bear markets.

The first instance occurred in January 2015, when the RSI dropped to 27.62, aligning with Bitcoin's low of $152, after which Bitcoin experienced a rally. The second instance was in December 2018, with the RSI at 29.21, correlating with a bear market low of $3,122. Bitcoin also rebounded from this point.

In June 2022, a similar scenario unfolded, with the weekly RSI falling below 30 to a low of 26.62. Although Bitcoin continued to drop afterward, significant declines were exacerbated by the FTX collapse in November 2022, resulting in prices hitting approximately $15,632. Still, recovery followed.

Now, with Bitcoin's current price at $87,681, Van de Poppe is optimistic that this time might lead to another rebound. Nevertheless, it is crucial for investors to remember that former trends do not assure similar outcomes in the future, and they should carefully analyze their investment choices.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein may reflect the author's views and do not necessarily represent The Crypto Basic's stance. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions, as The Crypto Basic disclaims any responsibility for financial losses.