Bitcoin's Bullish Future: Projected to Reach $170K Amid New Economic Policies

Korbit Research Center in South Korea anticipates Bitcoin could soar to between $140,000 and $170,000 by 2026, driven by new fiscal reforms in the US and increasing institutional demand for the cryptocurrency.

Key Takeaways

Korbit Research forecasts Bitcoin could reach between $140,000 and $170,000 by 2026.
The One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to stimulate corporate investments and maintain dollar strength.
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is growing, supported by regulatory clarity for ETFs and stablecoins.
Layer 1 blockchain competition is increasing, especially in response to the requirements set by the GENIUS Act.
Decentralized exchanges and the tokenization of real-world assets are rapidly evolving, signaling a significant shift in the cryptocurrency landscape.

In their fourth annual market outlook, the Korbit research team presents a unique perspective that shifts away from the usual four-year halving cycle narrative. Their analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price movements will be influenced more by productivity-driven growth in the US economy, as outlined in what they call "stronger Reaganomics."

Key Market Influencers Affecting Bitcoin's Price

The forecast identifies three key factors that are transforming asset allocation in today's markets. Positive expectations for the US dollar, potential corrections in gold prices, and Bitcoin's growing institutional presence through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are fundamentally reshaping how investors view digital assets. By November 2025, it is estimated that ETFs and DATs will collectively hold around 11.7% of Bitcoin's total supply.

Central to this prediction is the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3), which was enacted in July 2025. This legislation reinstates 100% bonus depreciation and immediate R&D expense deductions. Korbit predicts that these changes will lower effective corporate tax rates to between 10-12%, prompting a surge in capital expenditures and attracting foreign investments. The report argues that this combination of policies will help maintain dollar strength, challenging the common expectation on Wall Street of a dollar depreciation.

In a disinflationary environment with a robust dollar, gold may struggle as a non-yield-generating asset. This may allow Bitcoin to strengthen its status as a sovereign-grade store of value, possibly leading to a decrease in gold prices, despite some analysts forecasting gold prices at $4,000 per ounce—down 5% from current levels.

This shift in perception is putting pressure on traditional investment models. Bitcoin is beginning to function similarly to a sovereign-level store of value, competing directly with gold and the dollar for a share of institutional portfolios. The typical four-year Bitcoin cycles are becoming less relevant as high-interest rates, reduced liquidity, and slower market rallies alter the landscape. Experts now predict a price consolidation in the $100,000–$120,000 range by the end of 2025, with the potential for a secondary peak in 2026 if liquidity conditions improve.

Despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment, institutional adoption of Bitcoin is on the rise. Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows since receiving regulatory approval, and numerous companies are increasing their holdings in Digital Asset Treasuries, providing enhanced price support and lower volatility compared to previous cycles.

Layer 1 Blockchains Spark Competition Following GENIUS Act

The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, provides clear federal regulations for payment stablecoins. According to White House documents, this law mandates that issuers maintain 100% reserves in cash or short-term Treasury bills. This regulatory framework is encouraging US banks and financial institutions to adopt stablecoins more readily.

Compliance with these regulations also introduces technical requirements. Institutions seek blockchains that offer instant transaction finality and privacy features to efficiently adhere to Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) protocols. Ethereum, with its 12-second finality and full transaction transparency, has faced challenges attracting institutional users who prioritize privacy and swift settlement. Emerging Layer 1 blockchain networks, such as Arc, Tempo, and Plasma, are developing features designed for regulatory compliance, including selective privacy and sub-second finality.

Meanwhile, Solana is gaining traction in the retail space and is set to launch its Firedancer upgrade in early 2026. This upgrade aims to improve settlement speed and transaction throughput, which could help Solana attract more institutional clients in the stablecoin market.

Rise of Perpetual DEXs and Tokenization in DeFi

As of mid-2025, decentralized exchanges represent 7.6% of the total cryptocurrency trading volume and may reach 15% by the end of 2026. Perpetual derivative DEXs are leading this trend, generating most revenues among top DeFi protocols. According to OAK Research, Hyperliquid held 73% of the perpetual DEX market share by June 2025.

Hyperliquid's success stems from its efficient trade matching, rapid adoption, and innovative tokenomics. Its HYPE token buyback model sustains ongoing demand, allowing traders to create markets for various assets. Competitors are also venturing into real-world assets, foreign exchange, commodities, and US stock markets.

The tokenization of real-world assets has reached a significant milestone, with a valuation of $35.6 billion as of November 2025. This growth is primarily driven by the tokenization of private credit and US Treasuries. Anticipated advancements in adoption by fintech and web3 firms are expected, especially as traditional finance encounters obstacles with legacy systems and integration issues.

Competition among super-apps is intensifying as well. Robinhood is integrating stocks, cryptocurrencies, perpetuals, and real-world assets into a single platform, while Coinbase, leveraging CFTC licenses, aims to be the go-to platform for all on-chain assets and is awaiting regulatory approval for offering tokenized securities.

Prediction markets are also positioned to benefit, with platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion experiencing rising volumes and increasing regulatory scrutiny. The recent CFTC approval in the US is bringing these venues closer to mainstream adoption.