Bitcoin's Continued Slide: Are We in a Bear Market?

Bitcoin's current trajectory suggests that it may already be in the midst of a bear market, lasting around two months, according to Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant. Several of Moreno's indicators began to signal a bearish outlook as early as November.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin may already be in a two-month bear market, as indicated by several technical metrics.
A potential bottom price is expected between $56,000 and $60,000, signifying a 55% drop from its all-time high.
Current trading indicates uncertainty among traders, with options expiring soon.
Institutional buying has helped stabilize the market and prevent panic selling.
Analysts are divided on the future outlook, with some expecting further declines before recovery, while others remain hopeful for new highs in 2026.

Bitcoin

Moreno highlighted that the price dropping below the one-year moving average serves as a significant technical confirmation. He argues that this could indicate a shift towards a lower trading range in the near future.

Understanding Bitcoin's Current Market Indicators

Moreno suggests that Bitcoin's bottom might be found near the realized price, which he estimates to fall within the $56,000–$60,000 range. This forecast means that Bitcoin could experience a decline of about 55% from its all-time high, which, while substantial, is less severe than previous market crashes where drops reached 70% to 80%.

As of recent data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin started 2025 at around $93,000, reached a peak of $126,050 in October, and ultimately finished the year lower than its initial value. Current trading sits at approximately $88,920.

Market Caution in Derivatives Ahead of Expiry

Bitcoin has been stabilizing between the $87,000 and $89,000 range, particularly as $1.85 billion in options approaches its expiry. Reports indicate that while derivatives volume decreased by 39%, open interest has remained steady, suggesting a cautious approach among traders rather than one characterized by aggressive trading.

Technical indicators are pointing towards price compression near key support levels. Traders are keeping a close eye on the expiry of options contracts, as this could lead to a significant price movement once the contracts settle. Compared to previous downturns, current market volatility has been relatively subdued, creating tighter price action than many analysts anticipated.

Moreno and other market observers note that this market feels fundamentally different. Larger institutional players and regulated ETFs are reportedly making consistent purchases, which prevents panic selling from occurring. This consistent demand has mitigated the risk of cascading failures similar to those witnessed in 2022, when companies like Terra, Celsius, and FTX experienced collapses that exacerbated market losses. As a result, this downward trend seems more controlled, even as prices decline.

BTC-USD Chart BTC/USD is currently trading at $89,043. Chart: TradingView

Some analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that 2026 may bring new highs due to anticipated US interest rate cuts and a potentially more favorable regulatory environment. However, many are closely monitoring Bitcoin's correlation with US stock markets. Should this relationship weaken, the cryptocurrency might follow an independent path. Conversely, if the correlation remains strong, Bitcoin’s price trajectory could largely depend on movements within the larger market rather than on specific crypto flows.

In summary, key aspects to keep an eye on according to Moreno include the one-year moving average, realized price levels around $56,000–$60,000, the results of options expirations, and the continued buying patterns of institutional investors.

While the current price action has been less volatile than in past market crises, this tranquility might be concealing genuine downside risks. Analysts and traders remain divided: some predict a return to growth in the upcoming year, while others brace for further price declines before any meaningful recovery takes hold.